• 755 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 755 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 757 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,157 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,161 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,163 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,166 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,167 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,168 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,169 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,170 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,174 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,174 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,175 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,177 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,177 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,181 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,181 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,181 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,184 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP

Today I don't have much to say.

I give up in attempting to count the overlapping "crapping" move from the December 31 low.

It feels like I am fighting a losing battle, however I have not lost confidence of my preferred count which calls for a Double Zig Zag from the November lows, hence price is unfolding from the December 31 low the wave (A) of the second Zig Zag.

This means that when THEY decide to pull off the rag price should unfold a pullback wave (B), which I don't expect to break through the trend line support off the November low. This corrective wave (B) should be followed by the last wave (Y) that will complete the pattern of the up leg off the November lows, and will allow a SIZEABLE correction or maybe even a major reversal. But this is something we will have to evaluate once the pattern is over.

The main reason of expecting one more up leg in addition to the EW count is the absence of negative divergence in the daily RSI.

In order to consider feasible the beginning of the assumed and overdue multi-day pullback we need a reversal pattern.

So at the moment I can only say that bears have to reclaim the last higher low at 1481.26, in order to increase the odds of a short-term pause. At yesterday`s eod we do have a short-term bearish extreme with TICK at 903, but I don't know if this high reading is a strong argument, maybe just a heads up.

But this move is definitely overstretched hence it should be vulnerable.

SPX 60-Minute Chart
Larger Image

Since the daily chart does not offer any visible nearby potential resistance, I think that price might have as a magnet the trend line resistance that connects the May 2011-September 2102 peaks in the zone of 1500 +/-.

SPX Daily Chart
Larger Image

In the technical front, the song remains the same:

  • Negative divergence of the McClellan Oscillator

NYSE McClellan Oscillator Chart

  • Overbought Stochastic + RSI joining the club of overbought indicators.

SPX Momentum Chart
Larger Image

I keep watching TLT and VIX for indication of warnings. At the moment another "yellow flag" since yesterday neither one established a lower low.

TLT maintains a clear pattern that calls for a larger counter trend rebound that should unfold a Zag Zag up, hence if price breaks above 120.70 it should coincides with the overdue SPX pullback.

TLT Daily Chart
Larger Image

Regarding VIX, I would like to see if Friday's lod was an exhaustion move or we shall see even lower prices, although I think that the declining trend line should hold, in other words I would like to see a bullish candlestick.

VIX Daily Chart
Larger Image

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment