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William Yii

William Yii

William Yii (Affiliate CMT) is a professional fund manager currently based in Malaysia with extensive experience in managing Asian equities portfolios.

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Crude Palm Oil (CPO) - Broke Its Multi-Month 'Reversed HS'!!!

See Jan 16th's post: (http://tinyurl.com/b7sg2lm), I mentioned the bottoming crude palm oil price on its "monthly H&S broken-down pattern" while its weekly chart was showing a highly probable "reversed H&S pattern" set-up since the H&S target was met.

  1. The weekly price chart just broken-out of its "reversed H&S" pattern decisively.
  2. The price action of late is certainly pointing to more upsides in the Crude Oil itself as Palm oil typically track and rally along with Crude oil prices.
  3. 1st implication: although a rallying CPO prices is positive for the upstream producers, it also mean that inflationary pressure is once again looming and would not bode well for equities in general
  4. 2nd implication: a rallying commodity prices is very likely confirming equities' top since commodities typically lag equities' rally. Therefore, a final rally in commodities means equities are already in the process of topping!
  5. Lastly, given that global demand & supply outlook for CPO has not actually improved do drastically in the interim is implying that the bullish breakout in its prices could be led by speculative traders in the futures' market.


CPO (Monthly)

  • Confirming the completion of H&S pattern where its minimum target was met and followed by 2-monthly swing on its multi-year support line since 1999.

CPO Monthly Chart


CPO (weekly)

  • Its "reversed H&S" just broken out of the neckline pointing to more bullish moves in coming weeks!

CPO Weekly Chart

 

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