"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

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Are Gold Miners Poised For A Breakout?

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The State of the Trend

From a weekly seasonal point of view, the SPX is currently navigating the most troubled waters:


And it is doing so remarkably well, considering that the trend remains up in daily, weekly and monthly time-frames. Since the seasonally weak period extends for a few more weeks, let's focus on the negatives.

The SPX made two lower highs and failed twice at the 1526 level. If history is any guidance, the most likely interpretation is that the index has entered another congestion zone:


While the DJIA made a new high, the Qs are being dragged down by the likes of AAPL, which has just broken below support and is aiming for our next support zone:


In summary, while the trend remains up for all the major indices, there are a few clouds gathering on the horizon. The outcome will largely depend on the ability of the SPX to remain within the 2012 channel shown above.


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