"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 58 mins U.S. Money Market Funds Post Highest Outflows Since 2011
  • 2 hours Hedge Funds Turn Bearish On The Australian Dollar
  • 3 hours Tech Unicorns Are Taking Over European Stock Markets
  • 4 hours Trump Orders “Space Force” With Zero Support
  • 6 hours How Long Will The Gold Rout Last?
  • 8 hours The Wild Card In The New Eurozone Budget Agreement
  • 24 hours Why Investors Must Look At Small-Cap Stocks
  • 1 day Banking Major Pays $42M For Misleading Customers
  • 1 day Rookie Daytrader Accidentally Makes $10 Million Profit
  • 1 day Flying Cars Are No Longer Science Fiction
  • 1 day The Internet Fights Back As EU's Controversial Copyright Bill Passes
  • 1 day Is Gold Preparing For A Reversal?
  • 1 day Tech Giants Under Fire For Facial Recognition
  • 2 days 4 Reasons Why Gold Investors Should Keep A Cool Head
  • 2 days Hackers Lift $30 Million In Crypto From South Korean Exchange
  • 2 days Tax Reform Could Push U.S. Profits Abroad
  • 2 days Pot Stocks Soar As Canada Legalizes Cannabis
  • 2 days How Chinese Investors Could Send The Tech Boom Into Overdrive
  • 2 days U.S. Market Growth Weighs On The Global Economy
  • 2 days The Trials And Tribulations Of A $4 Billion Blockchain
Stock Markets Open Lower On Renewed Trade War Fears

Stock Markets Open Lower On Renewed Trade War Fears

Stock markets opened lower on…

Google Takes Aim At Amazon And Alibaba

Google Takes Aim At Amazon And Alibaba

Google has announced that it…

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent…

More Info

Long Cycles

Chances are you have seen a long-term chart of the Dow annotated as the chart below has been. The red hash marks designate secular bull and bear markets. But if you look closely, you may notice one significant difference from similar charts; the first secular market begins in 1921 and not in 1932 as is often shown.

Why the low in 1921? Why is the secondary low of March 2003 used and not the nominal low in October 2002? The dates shown on this chart are the lows of, what George Lindsay called, the Long Cycle and were found using very specific, rules-based methods devised by him. These rules are explained in the book An Aid to Timing. I recently took a moment to count the exact length of these long-cycles. Although Lindsay devised these methods using data he had collected back to 1798, he wrote the original An Aid to Timing in 1950 so he wasn't able to do perform this exercise for our "modern" market. Review the table below and notice how similar the four cycles are in duration.

Regardless of the time period chosen, the long cycle which began in 2003 is not expected to bottom until 2023. This should eliminate any question of whether the Dow began a new secular bull market at the low in March 2009.


Larger Image

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment