TOO HIGH TO BUY BUT THERE IS NOT A BEARISH SET UP YET

• Long Term Count ===> No change

  - I maintain the Triple Zig Zag = Wave (X).

  - Therefore price is now unfolding the last wave (Z) that will establish a major top.

  - Since the assumed wave (Z), which began at the November 2012 low, is not impulsive I am suggesting that it should unfold an Ending Diagonal, therefore we should be approaching the end of the wave (I) ed.

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• Elliott Wave Pattern of the up leg from the November lows.

===> No change.

• So far I can count a 7-wave legged structure therefore it is not impulsive hence it cannot establish the top of the assumed wave (Z) of the long-term count. This is why I consider reasonable an Ending Diagonal.
• If it is a 7-wave up leg then price is unfolding a Double Zig Zag.
• Therefore we are in the final wave (Y). If the equality extension target is fulfilled the target is at 1628.22.
• But we have another issue since once again the assumed last wave of the Double Zig Zag, which began on April 4, neither looks impulsive then I expect another potential Ending Diagonal.
• Once the Double Zig Zag is over (Assumed wave (I) ed) the following pullback should not breach the 200 dma therefore the probable target should be located in the range 1485 - 1447.

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In addition to my preferred count, which is calling for a partial retracement of the November up leg, two unique and unusual aspects should prevent a major reversal:

1. The Summation Index is oversold: During the last week of March the weekly stochastic has issued a "Sell signal" and it is already entering the oversold territory.

2. Individual Investors are extremely bearish. Huge scepticism among retail investors. (One of the lowest readings since the 2009 low). It is remarkable that SPX has established a new ATH and retail investors are not buying it (Usually they are the "last bag holders").

• Short-term EWP:

• The internal structure of the pullback from last Thursday high (TZZ) is suggesting that price has not established yet a meaningful top. Since the bounce off last Friday's lod is also corrective (So far a potential ZZ) for next week I expect more weakness maybe with a low before monthly OPEX next Friday.

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• Therefore if from the April 5 low price is unfolding a rising wedge the assumed wave (II) should bottom in the range 1570 (10dma) - 1564 (20dma). The following wave (III) will have to be corrective and shorter than the wave (I).

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• The caveat is Friday's apparently bullish Hammer (buyers are persistently buying every dip) but 2 issues are short term bearish friendly:

1. Three consecutive eod prints above the upper Bollinger Band (extensions above the BB increase the odds of a pullback).

2. The McClellan Oscillator is turning back and it is approaching the zero line. If the zero line is breached then the scenario of a larger pullback will be on track.

Keep in mind that in order to expect a reversal pattern we need to see a loss of strength hence it is required either a sequence of lower highs/lows or a negative divergence.