WAITING FOR THE LOWER HIGH
I don't change my preferred short-term scenario.
This rebound is corrective (Countertrend) therefore it is bound to establish a lower high.
Usually a wave (B) should top in the area of the 0.618 retracement. If higher it should still be considered a countertrend rebound but it could tangle up the EW count.
If the lower high is established at/below the 0.618 retracement then we will have an "easy" pattern to manage ===> Zig Zag from the April 11 high. If this is the case the following down leg will be an impulsive wave (C) with a likely target at 1500.
If this pattern pans out then the scenario discussed in my last weekend update would be on track. (The chart is not updated)
Regarding the EW count of the current rebound (From last Thursday's lod) in my opinion so far we have a 3-wave up leg. Since we don't have negative divergence or extreme short-term breadth readings I doubt that it is over. If this is the case then the pattern could evolve in a Double Zig Zag or a Zig Zag with a large impulsive wave (C) (Blue Count) or even with an Ending Diagonal wave (C) since the internal structure of the rise from yesterday's lod can also be counted as corrective (Red count).
Therefore we need to see today if a likely pullback will bottom either at the trend line support or at the 0.618 retracement of yesterday's up leg, in which case the assumed wave (B) will extend higher.
The loss of 1548 will most likely mean that this bounce is over.
With a larger rebound the Dow could be forming the right shoulder of an H&S:
