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Robert Prechter

Robert Prechter

Robert Prechter, Jr., is a social theorist and market analyst. He is president of Elliott Wave International, a forecasting firm servicing institutional and private investors…

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A Historic Sentiment Peak So Extreme It Happens 'Only Once in Centuries'

Elliott Wave Theorist

This sample of Subscriber Content comes from the April 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist.

Back in 1982 and 1983, when the majority of investors were afraid of stocks and hiding in money-market funds, the Elliott wave position of the market gave us a unique and valuable perspective.

The Elliott Wave Theorist recognized that a bull market akin to that of the Roaring 'Twenties had started and that it would become a bull market of "manic proportions, with elements of 1929, 1968 and 1973 all operating together and, at the end, to an even greater extreme." That was 30 years ago to the month (EWT, 4/6/83).

Even after building toward a record-setting climax 17 years later, asset-buying insanity still keeps rejuvenating. In the past 13 years, we have seen not just one stock market top combining the craziest peaks of the 20th century but one after another: 1929 on steroids, followed by 1968 on steroids, now followed by 1973 on steroids. Never before have there been three consecutive stock manias of such intensity in only 13 years' time. Within that span there have been sister manias for real estate, commodities, precious metals and even Bitcoins, every one constituting a multi-century rarity in its own right.

Incredibly, the extent of the manic behavior that developed went way beyond the radically bullish description we issued 30 years ago....

Throughout this time, we have known that each market was simply enjoying its turn in the public's rotation from one financial mania to another, each one expressing at least a Grand-Supercycle-degree extreme in positive social mood and therefore in financial optimism. One thing that has been crystal-clear to us is that payback for succumbing to the enticing lure of these investment sirens would be vicious.

The real estate market is in the deepest shambles, but investors who believed the "Peak Oil" scenario or chased other commodities are paying the price, too.

Our primary benefit so far has been keeping readers out of the traps that each of these markets has laid for them. Another soon-to-be-appreciated benefit is keeping your money safe, which will preserve your wealth and perhaps save your life. As the citizens of Cyprus discovered, when the debt pyramid implodes, the only valuable asset is cash; if you have it, you are king; if you don't, you could starve. Our ultimate future benefit will be to guide you in putting that money to work at the upcoming major bottom in financial asset prices.

We patiently look forward to the time when Elliott waves and technical indicators finally depict a major bottom in anything. But that time remains in the future. Not a single investment market - be it bonds, stocks, real estate, commodities or precious metals - stands anywhere near a major bottom today. Every one of them continues to show characteristics of being on the left or right side of a historic top of sentiment so extreme as to occur on average only once in centuries....

 


Read more: http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2013/04/24/Sample-A-Historic-Sentiment-Peak-So-Extreme-It-Happens-Only-Once-in-Centuries.aspx#ixzz2SwelFQQH

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