• 287 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 287 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 289 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 689 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 694 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 696 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 699 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 699 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 700 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 702 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 702 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 706 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 706 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 707 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 709 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 710 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 713 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 714 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 714 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 716 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Review and Forecast: July Crash?

From last week's 6/14 Email: "The active Master Cycle (MC) suggests a 6/13 major Low and rally to 6/17 Highs. We should then see a volatile chop into 6/20L"

Actual: We made a 6/13 Low and rallied to a 6/18 High of the week and declined sharply into 6/20 Lower Lows.

From the 6/18 evening email and 6/19 Fed day early morning update:

"I have several reasons to believe we may be at a short term High today, including the bearish rising wedge and the pattern of Fed Highs in 2013 and see a brief, possibly sharp, pullback into 6/20 Lows."

The last 3 FED meetings in 2013 were all short term Highs (yellow vertical lines in the hourly chart):


Larger Image

1. 2/20 Fed announcement => 2/19/13 High
2. 4/10 Fed announcement => 4/11/13 High
3. 5/22 Fed announcement => 5/22/13 High
4. 6/19 Fed announcement => 6/18/13 High

Actual: We made a 6/18 Fed High, 6/19 went sideways until 2.00 pm High of day and saw a sharp decline into 6/20 Lows. The pattern of Fed Highs in 2013 and the rising bearish wedge were among the reasons we called for a 6/19 Fed High and a sharp decline afterwards, although it wasn't expected to take out the 6/6 Lows, which is bearish.

I was expecting one last Higher High above the 5/22/13 Highs, before the actual decline began, but as the 6/6 and 6/13 Lows have now been violated, it suggests that the more bearish Scenarios are already in play and the coming MC High could be a lower High.

What's next: We should decline into the 6/20-21 Master Cycle Low right at the 6/21 Solar and geometric double Time CIT and see a sharp rally afterwards. As mentioned before, I have 2 Medium Term Time CITs (which is rare) due in July 2013 that bears watching. There is one cycle that suggests a potential Crash or sharp decline in July 2013, but let's see what kind of Highs we get first.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment