"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 8 hours Gold: The Religion Of Currency
  • 2 days Economists Polarized On Trump’s Tariff Plan
  • 2 days Why Are Investors Overlooking Gold Stocks?
  • 2 days The App That Democratized Trading Is Now Worth $5B
  • 2 days Super-Cycles: Why Gold Is Set For A Breakout
  • 2 days U.S. Sanctions Russia For Election Meddling And Cyberattacks
  • 3 days Snap Shares Tank Over ‘Slap Rihanna’ Campaign
  • 3 days How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
  • 3 days Amazon’s Japan HQ Raided In Anti-Monopoly Push
  • 3 days Is Barrick Gold Close To Finding A Bottom?
  • 3 days Morgan Stanley’s Top 10 Short-Term Stock Picks
  • 3 days China: The Land Of The Ultra-Rich
  • 3 days Alibaba Soars On Reports Of China Listing
  • 3 days What Killed Toys ‘R’ Us?
  • 4 days SEC And IRS Take An Aggressive Stance On Cryptocurrencies
  • 4 days Bears And Bulls Face Off In Gold Markets
  • 4 days Bitcoin Is Winning Over The Housing Market
  • 4 days Markets Slide Sideways As Trade War Fears Linger
  • 4 days Why Aren’t Millennials Investing?
  • 4 days Bitcoin And Banking: The Next Mobile Payment Revolution
Can This Bull Market Become The Longest In History?

Can This Bull Market Become The Longest In History?

Positive job growth and confident…

Why Aren’t Millennials Investing?

Why Aren’t Millennials Investing?

After watching previous generations take…

Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. EWI's 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via…

More Info

Deflation Warning: Money Manager Startles Global Conference

History shows that the U.S. should pay attention to economies in Europe

The economy has been sluggish for five years. There's no shortage of chatter about "why," yet few observers mention deflation.

One exception is a hedge fund manager who spoke up at the recent Milken Institute Global Conference.

The presentation by Dan Arbess, a partner at Perella Weinberg and chief investment officer at PWP Xerion Funds, was startling because of how deeply it broke from the standard narrative.

We've been wrong to assume that the economic crisis is over, Arbess said. ... The threat of deflation is once again rearing its head.

"The persistent risk in our economy is deflation not inflation," Arbess said.

CNBC, May 2

Deflation appears to be more than a threat. Consider what's already happening in the U.S. and in Europe.

Industrial production declined in April by the most in eight months, indicating American manufacturers will provide little support for an economy beset by weaker global markets and federal budget cuts.

Bloomberg, May 15

Europe is slipping further into recession.

The euro zone economy shrank more than expected in the first three months of 2013 ... as France returned to recession for the first time since 2009 and Germany barely edged forward.

It marked the longest recession for the euro countries since the currency was introduced in 1999.

New York Times, May 15

Here's a relevant fact: The Great Depression of 1929-1932 started in Europe before coming to America.

The economic wave may be much bigger this time.

Robert Prechter made this observation:

Total credit will contract, so bank deposits will contract, so the supply of money will contract, all with the same degree of leverage with which they were initially expanded.

Conquer the Crash, second edition, p. 111

EWI published this chart in March 2012.

Total Credit Market Debt as a Percent of GDP

The enormous credit expansion that started in the early 1980s is due to be leveled.

You can prosper during the next economic contraction. Many people did just that during the Great Depression. Robert Prechter's New York Times bestseller, Conquer the Crash, can teach you what you need to know to protect your portfolio during these high-risk financial times.

For a limited time, you can get part of Conquer the Crash for free. See below for more details.


Conquer the Crash

8 Chapters of Conquer the Crash -- FREE

This free, 42-page report can help you prepare for your financial future. You'll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson "Conquer the Crash Collection" Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Deflation Warning: Money Manager Startles Global Conference. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Sign Up For The Safehaven Newsletter