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USDINR - Free Falling!

Tom Petty's song seems apt for the Rupee massacre of 2013.

I have been receiving multiple jokes a day on Rupee. One from today builds in Hindi on the INR acronym - Izzat Nahin Rahi, which translated to English means - "I (have) No Respect"

The layman in India feels entitled to take a stab at Rupee via jokes and imagery. Google and you will find many examples.

Save the Rupee

Typically, such sentiment and ridicule about an asset class marks a bottom (for Rupee depreciation), and it most likely is going to be true in this case alas for short term. Short term the 2013 depreciation is over but it is not as if I see USD/INR reversing the gains completely but instead I would expect a higher retest of 2013 breakout point at 57.55 by Hindu festival of Diwali on 11/3/13 at about 62, go sideways into May-July 2014 and then burst back up and go to 81.33+ in later 2014, and a minimum measured move to 73-75.

USDINR Chart 1

However, long term is a different story as the breakout seems to be at 57.55 and for 21-24 months depending on how you want to visualize the wedge breakout. So we will go with the range of TIME.

Also, the minimum breakout length is 16 Rs. and once again that projects that we see 73-75 USD/INR in the next 21-24 months. However, based on Cycles and EW - I see the current burst out as merely the beginning of a wave that will go well into 2014.

USDINR Chart 2

 


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