• 538 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 538 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 540 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 940 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 944 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 946 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 950 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 950 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 951 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 952 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 953 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 957 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 957 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 958 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 960 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 960 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 964 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 965 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 965 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 967 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Connecting the Dots - 09/02/2013

The long and short of things: Performance trends continued to shift last month.

  • The baton was passed in the equity markets in August with the S&P 500 stumbling (~ -3%), Europe outperforming (VGK ~ -1.5%) and China rallying (SSEC ~ +5%). Although we continue to see risk towards the upside, we expect equities ex-US to extend their outperformance in September.

SPX 1980-1993 versus Shanghai 2008-2013 Chart
Larger Image

For recent context - see Here.

IBEX Daily 2003 versus 2013 Chart
Larger Image

IBEX Daily 2003 versus 2013 Chart 2
Larger Image

For recent context - see Here.

  • Lighting a long fuse and strongly outperforming equities, hard commodities - led by silver, gold and their respective miners had a banner August. We continue to favor the precious metals sector.

Silver 2010-2013 versus Copper 2006-2010 Chart
Larger Image

For recent context - see Here.

Gold Daily Chart 2004 versus 2013
Larger Image

Gold 2010-2013 versus Gold 2006-2009 Chart
Larger Image

Silver daily Chart 2004 versus 2013
Larger Image

Gold daily Chart 2010-2013 versus 2007-2009
Larger Image

GDX 2012-2013 versus BKX 2010-2013 Daily Chart
Larger Image

BKX 2008-2009 versus GDX 2012-2013 Daily Chart
Larger Image

XAU Gold and Silver Index versus GDX 2004-2013 Daily Chart
Larger Image

For recent context - see Here.

  • While over the short-term the dollar likely has more room to run, we see the USDX rolling over into 2014 along the lines of 1994 and 2004.

USDX 2007-2013 versus 1990-1996 Weekly Chart
Larger Image

For recent context - see Here.

USDX 1994 versus 2013 Daily Chart
Larger Image

USDX 2004 versus UUP 2013 Daily Chart
Larger Image

For recent context - see Here.

  • Until the SPX breaks below the Meridian on a monthly basis (for September it's ~ 1570) - we expect momentum to remain with the bulls.

SPX Monthly Chart
Larger Image

For recent context - see Here.

Although the year-to-date trend profile has run across the grain - the 2004 SPX momentum comparative, which illustrates four (4) successively longer and deeper corrections, has been useful for short-term positioning and contrasts as the Fed transitions the market to less accommodative monetary policies.

SPX 2004 versus 2013 Daily Chart
Larger Image

SPX 2004 versus 2013 Daily Chart 2
Larger Image

We loosened the scale on the 120 minute comparative to align with the daily chart above. Should the equity markets continue to follow this structure - the bid in futures Monday will be sold hard in the back half of this week.

Those concerns are somewhat mitigated by the positive momentum and strength divergences (annotated on both charts) which depict a more resilient structure, such as the August 2004 low.

SPX 2004 versus 2013 2-Hour Chart
Larger Image

For further context - see Here.

From the bulls perspective, the VIX also appears more representative of exhaustion - than continuation.

VIX 2004 versus 2013 Daily Chart
Larger Image

EEM 2004 versus 2013 Daily Chart
Larger Image

TNX versus Gold  2004-2013 Daily Chart
Larger Image

For recent context - see Here.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment