• 105 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 106 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 107 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 507 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 512 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 514 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 517 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 517 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 518 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 520 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 520 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 524 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 524 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 525 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 527 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 528 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 531 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 532 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 532 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 534 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Yesterday's analysis expected upwards movement. Price has moved sideways in a small range. This lack of upwards movement has made me take another look at the bigger picture, and I have adjusted my alternate wave count accordingly today.

At this stage the situation with gold is unclear. This is why I have so many alternates; I do not normally publish this many alternate ideas. We need to see the parallel channel on the hourly chart clearly breached by upwards movement to have confidence that the upwards trend has resumed. How high that next wave goes will indicate which wave count is correct, and we may then have clarity.

Main Wave Count

Larger Image

This wave count agrees with MACD. If upwards movement is within a third wave, then it should show an increase in upwards momentum beyond the end of minor wave 1. Because we have not seen that increase in upwards momentum yet (on the one to six hourly time frames) we may not have seen the middle of the third wave.

At 1,545 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 3 subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated at minute wave degree with movement below 1,352.45.

Larger Image

Another slight new low has again changed the structure of this downwards wave. If it is a correction, then it may have been a single zigzag with an ending diagonal for micro wave C.

The subdivisions all fit nicely and micro wave C is just 0.09 short of equality with micro wave A. The only problem with this wave count is the part of the diagonal, which does not fit within its trend lines. This looks odd, and is another reason why I have reanalysed this downwards movement and why my alternate is today different.

We still need to see the parallel channel containing this downwards movement breached to have confirmation that it is over and the next upwards wave is underway. The strength and momentum of the next wave upwards will show which of the two ideas for this main wave count is correct: if it is a very strong movement then it may be the middle of a third wave, and if it shows a decrease in momentum from the prior wave upwards then it may be a fifth wave. Either way, this wave count still requires at least one more upwards wave.

At 1,489 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

While price remains firmly within the parallel channel the invalidation point will remain at 1,352.45. Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

Larger Image

It is possible that this downwards movement is a fourth wave correction for minute wave iv, and that minute wave iii is complete.

Minute wave iii is just 2.51 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

This wave count also expects more upwards movement from gold, but for a fifth wave and not the middle of a third. The difference is in expected momentum; the first daily chart expects a strong increase in momentum.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,344.26.

Alternate Wave Count

Larger Image

If cycle wave a is unfolding as an impulse then recent upwards movement is primary wave 4 within the impulse. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Primary wave 4 is either incomplete (subdivisions would be the same as the main wave count) or it is possible it is over.

This wave count is an alternate because there are no Fibonacci ratios at intermediate degree within primary wave 3 of cycle wave III. I have spent much time trying to see a better fit in terms of ratios, which meets all EW rules for this wave count, but so far I cannot. This does not mean it does not exist!

There is no downwards invalidation point for this alternate. Movement below 1,344.26 would confirm it.

Larger Image

This 2 hourly chart shows all of intermediate wave (C). The problem of the third wave being the shortest is resolved if the first wave ends lower, and the second wave is an expanded flat correction. However, with this wave count there are now no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5. This is unusual for gold and so reduces the probability of this wave count.

Larger Image

I am considering this idea because recent downwards movement looks and fits best as a leading diagonal. The diagonal may be over, or the current sideways movement may be a fourth wave triangle and the final fifth wave down may need to complete.

Leading diagonals in first wave positions are usually followed by deep second wave corrections. This wave count also expects upwards movement but not above 1,433.83, whereas the main wave count requires movement above this point.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment