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Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

I have been using the Elliott wave principle to analyse up to five markets a day since 2008. I began Elliott Wave Forex (originally ForexInfo.us)…

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Originally published 25th September, 2013

Last analysis expected more upwards movement, which is exactly what has happened.

The wave counts remain the same.

XAU/USD Daily Chart
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There are still several possible structures for primary wave 4. So far we have a three down from the high at 1,433.83. This three down is less than 90% the length of intermediate wave (W) so it cannot be a B wave within a flat over there. This structure may be a double zigzag or double combination. In a double combination the second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or triangle.

It is most likely at this stage that primary wave 4 is continuing as a double zigzag rather than a combination, because combinations commonly have X waves which are deeper than this one is. Intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a zigzag.

Primary wave 2 was a deep 68% regular flat correction lasting 54 weeks. Given the guideline of alternation we may expect primary wave 4 to continue for longer than it has so far, possibly for another nine weeks to last a Fibonacci 21 (give or take one week either side of this). If it completed as a double zigzag there would be nice alternation in structure with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 has already passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio, so it may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 3 at 1,529.97. It should find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott's first technique.

When I know where minor waves A and B within primary wave Y have ended then I can use the ratio between minor waves A and C to calculate a target for upwards movement to end. I cannot do that yet.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

XAU/USD Hourly Chart
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Upwards movement continues as expected, and is very far from being done yet.

Minute wave iii must make a new high above the end of minute wave i at 1,375.16. The target remains the same. At 1,441 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

So far there may be two first and second waves completed. Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated at minuette wave degree with movement below 1,316.72. If this wave count is invalidated with downwards movement (before a new high is in place above 1,338.18) then the invalidation point would move down to the start of minute wave iii at 1,305.90.

I will not calculate a target yet for minuette wave (iii); if it is extending it may not have a Fiboancci ratio with minuette wave (i). When the middle of it is finished I will have two wave degrees to calculate a shorter term target for you.

Minute wave iii may take about five to eight days in total to complete.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

XAU/USD Daily Wave Count Chart
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I have tried to see as many alternates as I can. This wave count is possible but it has problems of proportion which make it look odd. I will publish it as a slim outlying possibility. I would only use it if it is confirmed with movement below 1,291.95.

If primary wave 4 is over then it lasted only 9 weeks, compared to primary wave 2 which lasted 53 weeks. This gives the monthly chart the wrong look.

Within recent downwards movement minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,416.45. If price moves above this point next week I would have more confidence in the main wave count.

 

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