• 525 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 526 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 527 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 927 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 932 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 934 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 937 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 937 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 938 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 940 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 940 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 944 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 944 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 945 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 947 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 948 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 951 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 952 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 952 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 954 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Last analysis of US Oil expected more downwards movement towards a target at 87.82 to 88.72. Price has moved lower and the target has not been yet met, the structure is incomplete.

Now there is more structure of this long downwards wave to analyse I am changing the wave count within it. Two fourth wave triangles indicate it is much closer to the end. The target has been recalculated.

USOil 1 Day Data Chart
Larger Image

The bigger picture sees US Oil in a new downwards trend to last from one to several years. When I can see a clear five wave structure downwards on the daily chart I will have confidence in a trend change at cycle degree. So far the downwards structure for the first wave at minor degree is incomplete, and I cannot say that there is yet a clear five down.

The labeling within the downwards wave has this week been changed to see the strongest downwards movement as within the third wave. Minute wave iii is extended and not yet complete. Within minute wave iii the middle of the third wave is extended (this is the most common extension).

Within minute wave iii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii). This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and minuette waves (i) or (iii). At 89.83 minuette wave (v) would reach equality with minuette wave (i), and this is the most common ratio so it has the highest probability.

When minute wave iii is completed then I would expect about four days of upwards movement for minute wave iv to end between 92.51 and 94.54 (within the price range of the fourth wave of one lesser degree).

Thereafter, I would expect one relatively short fifth wave down to last about three or four days, and be about 6.70 in length. That would complete the entire structure for minor wave 1.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.

US OIL 2 Hourly Data Chart
Larger Image

The two triangle structures indicate that two fourth waves have just completed. This indicates further downwards movement for a fifth wave.

There is classic technical divergence at the end of subminuette wave iii and minuette wave (iii).

For both triangles MACD hovers about the zero line.

Overall I expect about two more weeks of downwards movement to end minor wave 1, with a final fourth wave correction during this time.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment