• 761 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 762 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 763 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,163 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,168 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,170 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,173 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,173 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,174 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,176 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,176 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,180 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,180 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,181 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,183 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,184 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,187 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,188 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,188 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,190 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

A Sign of the End of the Tightening Cycle

The end of Fed interest rate increases may be in sight. In previous cycles, the end of Fed interest rate hikes has coincided with a local trough of the MZM. The cycles in 1989 and 1995 ended with MZM below 0% growth on a year-over-year basis. MZM is just barely above zero. For the week of 5/23, MZM growth was less than one-half of one percent at 0.4% with a downward trend. One more interest rate increase may push it into negative territory.

Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher gave some clues on the length of the Fed's current interest rate cycle with an analogy to baseball. In a CNBC interview he said "We're clearly in the eighth inning of a tightening cycle". Additionally, in a Wall Street Journal interview he continued the baseball theme with the statement "The next meeting in June is the ninth inning. We'll take a look after that. We may have to go into extra innings in this contest against inflation." The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for June 29-30.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05153/514593.stm

So with the end in sight of the tightening cycle, what is an investor to do? First, watch the yield curve. It should be our best indication that the Fed has raised rates too far. As long as the yield curve begins to rise, it may be a good time to add exposure to sectors that are most hurt by rising rates. Financials and utilities both fit that category. However, utilities have performed very well over the last year, while financials have lagged. Year-to-date thru June 3, the utilities sector is up 10% while financial sector is down more than 6%.

Momentum investors may opt for utilities while contrarian or value investors should consider financials. Perhaps some of each.

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment