Mark J. Valek, CAIA, Partner & Fund Manager, at Incrementum AG sent a nice email earlier today regarding the inflation-deflation debate. Mark writes ....
Financial markets have become highly dependent on central bank policies. We sincerely believe that grasping the consequences of the interplay between monetary inflation and deflation is crucial for prudent investors these days. To express our views on this highly relevant topic, we have just finished our Incrementum Chartbook, explaining the dynamics of "monetary tectonics".
Attached please find our new Incrementum Chartbook: 50 Slides Illustrating the Tug of War Between Inflation and Deflation!
We wish you a happy, healthy and prosperous new year!
Ronald Stoeferle & Mark Valek
Here is the introduction from the 50 page PDF Incrementum Chartbook # 2: Monetary Tectonics
Due to structural over - indebtedness and the resulting addiction to low/negative real interest rates, we are certain that the traditional way of thinking about financial markets and asset management is no longer beneficial for investors. Therefore, at Incrementum we evaluate all our investments not only from the perspective of the global economy but also in the context of the current state of the global monetary regime. This analysis produces what we consider a truly holistic view of the state of financial markets.
Financial markets have become highly dependent on central bank policies. Grasping the consequences of the interplay between monetary inflation and deflation is crucial for prudent investors.
We sincerely believe that the Austrian School of Economics provides us with the appropriate intellectual foundation, especially in this demanding financial and economic environment.
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, Mark J. Valek
Here is a generous sampling of charts from the PDF, interspersed with a few comments by me, in italics. Click on any chart for a sharper image.
History of QE
Light Years Away From Normal
Price Inflation Where?
Where Did the Money Go?
Price Deflation was Once Common
What Are Monetary Tectonics?
I added that box in red. It is very similar to my own stated thoughts, that the US would go in and out of deflation over a number of years. I view US hyperinflation calls as essentially nonsensical. Japan will be first.
In a note related to the asterisk, the authors encourage the interested reader to look up what F.A.Hayek wrote about the concept of the inverted pyramid in Prices and Production.
Deflating Credit vs. Inflating Monetary Base
Tug of War
Once again I see eye to eye with the authors, adding that a busting of the equity and bond bubbles are going to be anything but inflationary!
This time the asterisk is accompanied with the footnote:
* Please also refer to another outstanding speech of James Rickards on the Future of Money
** Low velocity according to the Monetarist Paradigm
Total Credit Market Debt as Percent of GDP
US Bank Credit Growth
Money Supply Growth US and Eurozone
* According to the Austrian School the concept of quantifying an exact figure for velocity is questionable, due to several issues, partly regarding the accounting of the money supply and the calculation of GDP. However the demand to hold currency is currently extremely high i.e. velocity low
I concur with that comment, adding velocity is low because, not in spite of all the monetary printing.
Conclusion: Inflation Or Deflation?
Still Signaling Disinflation
Final Mish Thoughts
I appreciate Incrementum AG making these charts available. I especially appreciate the common-sense approach of including credit in their analysis.
In general, hyperinflationists (as well as many self-proclaimed Austrians) ignored and continue to ignore credit, even though credit dwarfs money supply. Those screaming hyperinflation or strong inflation is at hand, missed the boat and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Another equity bubble bust is around the corner, and that bust will be anything but inflationary.
There is much more in the PDF to see, including an analysis of gold, silver, and other commodities. Inquiring minds should peruse the entire report.
Thanks again to Ronald Stoeferle & Mark Valek for their superb analysis and charts.