Since 2009 the ebb and flow between risk on and risk off SPDR sectors has been like clock work, at present the cycle is due for a cycle swing to the risk off, but it is late.
It could be the cycle is about to lose it influence, but don't give up yet. The cycle rotation has been late in the past. A cycle rotation from risk on SPDR sectors to risk off does not always mean a dramatically lower SP500. You can bet the big fat forefinger is hanging over the red 'Sell' button on the keyboard, just waiting for some one to go first. Very tense!