Gold has moved above the key resistance area defined by its falling channel and 1268. However, the current lack of follow-through suggests a potential false breakout. Hourly supports stand at 1245 (22/01/2014 high, see also the rising trendline) and 1232. A resistance now stands at 1280.
Longer term, we continue to view the rise from 1181 (28/06/2013 low) as a counter-trend move within an underlying bearish trend. Therefore the test of the key support at 1181 is seen as the minimum downside risk. Another key support stands at 1045 (05/02/2010 low). Monitor the test of the first key resistance area between 1268 (10/12/2013 high) and 1279 (38.2% retracement of the decline from 1434 (28/08/2013 high)).