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Peter Vogel

Peter Vogel

Peter Vogel began his investment career in 1981, first as a Floor Trader and then as an Investment Advisor for a major securities firm. During…

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GOLD, The Mystery Chart

In my previous article, "Gold, Bottom or Bounce", I displayed a chart that accurately predicted a high probability bottom in Gold on Dec 30 with an uptick confirmation on Dec 31, and that Gold was about to undergo a very substantial rally. However, there were other reasons for displaying that particular chart that will now become apparent when you look at it below. Namely, this 'mystery chart', which is the relative strength ratio of Gold divided by the Dow Jones Utility Average, also assists in determining where we approximately are in the business cycle. Yes, I said the "b" word, despite international free trade, the business cycle still exists, only that it now seems to be more synchronized amongst all the industrialized countries. Sometimes I think it only exists because the central banks and investment bankers conspire to make it exist as a way to profit from "their" invisible hand herding the sheep (to slaughter).

The turning points of the Gold/Utilities ratio, often precedes topping action in the US stock market (S&P 500 shown) and bottoming action in Gold and Commodities (CRB ex oil shown). Where traditionally relied upon technical indicators on the absolute price of any of the above named asset classes may have failed, the Gold/Utilities ratio succeeded this time. To all those calling for Gold $1000, better luck next time.

Gold/Dow Utilities Ratio - Weekly

Gold/Dow Utilities Ratio Weekly Chart
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*The arrows on the chart highlight where the Ratio successfully predicted sizeable and tradable moves in the asset classes shown.

*If you remove the yellow 1999.5 and the 2005.5 vertical markers, the spacing between the cycles will actually becomes clearer and seems to be quite symmetrical. The thicker green bars measure 6~7 years, and appears to catch the stronger business cycles. More careful analysis could probably pick up the intermediary cycles.

Congratulations to Craig Di Bias, Rod C. and Geoff V-A. for correctly guessing the underlying symbols in the ratio - they were awarded a respective 6 month, 3 month and 1 month free subscription to InvestorKey.

 

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