Entry Date (02/14/14); Long 49.95; Stop 49,25; Target 51
Reasons: Tactical short-term trade based upon the internal structure of the current bounce and the scenario of a pullback of the equity market.
TLT Brief Elliott Wave analysis:
The decline from the February 3 high, so far, has unfolded a 3-wave down leg (Corrective decline), therefore I am assuming that the advance from the December 31 low to the February 3 high can be the wave (A) of a potential Zig Zag up, hence the current pullback should be the wave (B).
On February 12 the Hammer candlestick followed by a gap up are suggesting a probable short-term pause within a larger corrective wave (B) pattern that could bottom in the area of the 50 dma (The MACD has a bearish cross favoring a larger wave (B) correction).
If a short-term bottom is in place the current countertrend rebound can reach the resistance zone located in the range 107.22-107.38 (The 200 dma should prevent further follow-through in a countertrend bounce).
In the 60 min chart below we can see that the internal structure of the rebound from the February 12 low is suggesting probable that at least a Zig Zag up is underway.
If 106.27 holds the equality extension target is located at 107.38 (Coinciding with the 200 dma).
Last Friday I have opened a long position in TMF at 49.95 with a stop at 49.25 (Hopefully tomorrow I will raise it to 49.60).
If the upward Zig Zag pans out the equality extension target is located at 51.