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EURUSD: Review of The Long Term Elliott Wave Pattern

Brief update

I maintain the two potential patterns discussed the last time on October 19, 2013:

  1. Double Zig Zag Option: From the July 2012 low price is unfolding the second wave (B) of a Double Zig Zag, which began at the July 2008 high. The theoretical target of the assumed wave (B) could be located in the range 1.4053 - 1.4424 Once the wave (B) is in place it will be followed by the last wave (Y) down that could have a similar size of the preceding wave (A) = - 0.29 €.

EUR Monthly Chart
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  1. Triangle: From the October 2008 low price is forming a Triangle wave (B). Instead of the second wave (B) price is now unfolding the wave (E) of the Triangle. We can use the same price levels discussed above for the target of the wave (E). Once the wave (B) is in place it will be followed by a "thrust" wave (C) down which has a measured length of - 0.3185 € (The Eur would lose the parity).

EUR Monthly Triangle Chart
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Elliott Wave wise the issue is to establish the correct pattern of the advance from the July 2012, which is clearly corrective, but this is a difficult task.

We can make the case that price is unfolding a Triple Zig Zag.

We could agree that the first Double Zig Zag was completed at the February 2013 high and the third Zig Zag began at the July 2013 low. If this idea is correct the third wave (A) was established at the October 2013 high. Now we have to establish where is the correct spot for the third wave (B).

EUR Weekly Triple Zig Zag Chart
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Possible Options:

1. Triangle: Price formed a Triangle wave (B) which was completed on February 27. The following thrust can be counted as impulsive but it could be the first wave of a larger impulsive sequence.

EUR Daily Triangle Chart
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2. Running Flat: The wave (B) was established at the February 3 higher low with a Running Flat. If this count is correct probably a wave (IV) pullback is underway which will be followed by the last wave (V) up.

EUR Daily Running Flat Chart
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3. Ending Diagonal: From the November 7 low price is forming an Ending Diagonal wave (Z). If this is the case we are now in the wave (III).

EUR Daily Ending Triangle Chart
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With more price information I hope I will be able to find the right path.

 

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