Originally published 17th March, 2014.
Last analysis on 26th February expected more upwards movement towards a target at 105.80 to 107.63. Price moved up to 105.21 where it turned.
In the short term I am looking for a second wave correction to show soon, and its arrival will be confirmed with a breach of the channel on the hourly chart. In the mid to long term I am expecting a continuation of downwards movement towards 72.53. This target may be met in about 55 days.
The bigger picture sees US Oil in a downwards correction which is incomplete. The correction is subdividing as a zigzag. Within the zigzag cycle waves a and b are complete. I would expect cycle wave c to find support, and end, at the lower edge of the parallel channel.
If the wave count is invalidated at the daily chart level then cycle wave b may be continuing higher. It may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a at 146.73.
The daily chart shows all of the start of cycle wave c downwards.
Minor wave 1 subdivides perfectly as an impulse. Minor wave 2 is now complete as an expanded flat correction which is a 66% correction of minor wave 1.
Within minor wave 2 minute wave b is 106% the length of minute wave a, and minute wave c is 0.59 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave a.
At 72.53 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days and minor wave 2 lasted 67 days. If minor wave 3 is of about the same duration it may end in another 55 days or thereabouts.
The channel drawn about minor waves 1 and 2 is a base channel. Minor wave 3 downwards should clearly and strongly breach the lower edge of the channel. Along the way down upwards corrections should find resistance about the upper edge of the channel.
Within minor wave 3 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 105.21.
The hourly chart shows all of the beginning of minor wave 3. So far it is possible that minute wave i is complete, but this needs to be confirmed with a breach of the channel containing it. Draw the channel from the lows labeled minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy upon the high labeled minuette wave (ii).
If minute wave i is complete then within it Fibonacci ratios are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.29 longer than equality with minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.02 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (i).
If the channel is breached by upwards movement then I would expect minute wave ii to reach up to about 102.21. It may not move beyond the start of minute wave i at 105.21.
