The good news is:
• We are entering a seasonally strong period.
The weakness of last week was enough to turn all of the major indicators downward.
The NASDAQ new high indicator (OTC NH) is a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs. The chart below shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in red and OTC NH in green. OTC NH does a pretty good job of indicating the short term market trend and it turned downward as of last Monday's close.
A summation index (SI) is a running total of oscillator values. The chart below shows SI's calculated from NASDAQ advancing issues - declining issues, new highs - new lows and upside volume - downside volume. Summation indices are an intermediate term trend indicator. As of Friday all of the NASDAQ summation indices had turned downward.
Seasonally next week includes the last 4 trading days of June and the first trading day of July. The tables below show the daily performance of the OTC and the S&P 500 (SPX) during the last 4 trading days of June and the 1st trading day of July during the 1st year of the presidential cycle with summaries for each day and the entire week. There are also summaries for same period over all years. The OTC data cover the period from 1963 - 2004 and the SPX data cover the period from 1928 - 2004. There are averages for 5 periods as well as the entire database.
MDD = Maximum Draw Down
The number following the year represents its position in the presidential cycle.
The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;
1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.
| OTC Presidential Year 1 | ||||||
| Day4 | Day3 | Day2 | Day1 | Day1 | Totals | |
| 1965-1 | -1.51% 5 | -0.45% 1 | -2.13% 2 | 0.80% 3 | 1.80% 4 | -1.49% |
| 1969-1 | -0.03% 3 | 0.09% 4 | 0.23% 5 | 1.20% 1 | 0.60% 2 | 2.09% |
| 1973-1 | 0.53% 2 | 0.26% 3 | 0.94% 4 | -0.18% 5 | -0.82% 1 | 0.73% |
| 1977-1 | -0.03% 1 | -0.35% 2 | 0.06% 3 | 0.39% 4 | 0.17% 5 | 0.24% |
| 1981-1 | 0.25% 4 | 0.21% 5 | -0.70% 1 | -1.13% 2 | -0.52% 3 | -1.90% |
| Avg | -0.16% | -0.05% | -0.32% | 0.22% | 0.25% | -0.06% |
| 1985-1 | 0.80% 2 | 0.38% 3 | 0.66% 4 | 0.29% 5 | 0.09% 1 | 2.23% |
| 1989-1 | 0.28% 2 | -0.81% 3 | -1.57% 4 | -0.60% 5 | 0.16% 1 | -2.54% |
| 1993-1 | 0.88% 5 | 1.16% 1 | -0.25% 2 | 0.41% 3 | -0.05% 4 | 2.15% |
| 1997-1 | -0.43% 3 | -0.68% 4 | 0.13% 5 | 0.26% 1 | -0.26% 2 | -0.97% |
| 2001-1 | 0.67% 2 | 0.49% 3 | 2.44% 4 | 1.65% 5 | -0.55% 1 | 4.71% |
| Avg | 0.44% | 0.11% | 0.28% | 0.40% | -0.12% | 1.11% |
| Averages | 0.14% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.52% |
| % Winners | 60% | 60% | 60% | 70% | 50% | 60% |
| MDD 6/29/1965 4.04% -- 6/30/1989 2.96% -- 7/1/1981 2.33% | ||||||
| OTC averages for all years 1963 - 2004 | ||||||
| Averages | -0.14% | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.33% |
| % Winners | 43% | 52% | 64% | 69% | 55% | 69% |
| MDD 7/1/1970 5.06% -- 7/1/1974 4.99% -- 7/1/2002 4.06% | ||||||
| SPX Presidential Year 1 | ||||||
| Day4 | Day3 | Day2 | Day1 | Day1 | Totals | |
| 1929-1 | 0.59% 3 | 0.18% 4 | 1.11% 5 | 0.77% 6 | 0.54% 1 | 3.20% |
| 1933-1 | 1.01% 2 | -1.28% 3 | -0.92% 4 | 1.58% 5 | 2.57% 6 | 2.96% |
| 1937-1 | -1.03% 6 | -1.56% 1 | 0.13% 2 | 1.72% 3 | 0.45% 4 | -0.29% |
| 1941-1 | 0.40% 4 | -0.50% 5 | -0.10% 6 | -0.30% 1 | -0.30% 2 | -0.81% |
| 1945-1 | -0.13% 3 | -2.02% 4 | -1.13% 5 | 0.61% 6 | 0.47% 1 | -2.21% |
| 1949-1 | -0.07% 1 | -0.85% 2 | 0.64% 3 | 0.50% 4 | 0.71% 5 | 0.93% |
| 1953-1 | 0.42% 4 | 0.08% 5 | -0.29% 1 | 0.00% 2 | 0.41% 3 | 0.62% |
| 1957-1 | 0.79% 2 | -0.13% 3 | 0.36% 4 | 0.23% 5 | 0.13% 1 | 1.38% |
| 1961-1 | 0.00% 2 | 0.19% 3 | -0.11% 4 | 0.19% 5 | 0.88% 1 | 1.15% |
| Avg | 0.20% | -0.55% | -0.10% | 0.30% | 0.52% | 0.37% |
| 1965-1 | -0.60% 5 | -1.76% 1 | 0.99% 2 | 2.07% 3 | 0.43% 4 | 1.14% |
| 1969-1 | -0.32% 3 | 0.25% 4 | 0.08% 5 | 0.39% 1 | 0.38% 2 | 0.78% |
| 1973-1 | 1.03% 2 | 0.31% 3 | 1.03% 4 | -0.41% 5 | -1.30% 1 | 0.65% |
| 1977-1 | -0.21% 1 | -0.83% 2 | -0.03% 3 | 0.37% 4 | -0.38% 5 | -1.08% |
| 1981-1 | 0.11% 4 | -0.19% 5 | -0.51% 1 | -0.52% 2 | -1.10% 3 | -2.19% |
| Avg | 0.00% | -0.44% | 0.31% | 0.38% | -0.39% | -0.14% |
| 1985-1 | 0.31% 2 | 0.17% 3 | 0.62% 4 | 0.32% 5 | 0.30% 1 | 1.72% |
| 1989-1 | 0.56% 2 | -0.80% 3 | -1.88% 4 | -0.53% 5 | 0.39% 1 | -2.26% |
| 1993-1 | 0.22% 5 | 0.95% 1 | -0.26% 2 | -0.04% 3 | -0.34% 4 | 0.54% |
| 1997-1 | -0.82% 3 | -0.60% 4 | 0.41% 5 | -0.24% 1 | 0.66% 2 | -0.59% |
| 2001-1 | -0.15% 2 | -0.47% 3 | 1.25% 4 | 0.00% 5 | 0.86% 1 | 1.49% |
| Avg | 0.02% | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.10% | 0.38% | 0.18% |
| Averages | 0.11% | -0.47% | 0.07% | 0.35% | 0.30% | 0.38% |
| % Winners | 53% | 37% | 53% | 58% | 74% | 63% |
| MDD 6/29/1945 3.25% -- 6/30/1989 3.18% -- 6/28/1937 2.58% | ||||||
| SPX averages for all years 1928 - 2004 | ||||||
| Averages | -0.04% | -0.09% | 0.14% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.43% |
| % Winners | 43% | 50% | 59% | 60% | 68% | 57% |
Typically there is a rally during the last 2 - 3 trading days of June. Last week's sell off turned most of the indicators downward and alleviated the overbought condition the market had been in for a while. Seasonal strength should help next week.
I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday July 1 than they were on Friday June 24.
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