Originally published 31st March, 2014.
Last week's analysis expected more upwards movement to a target at 101.76 to 102.71. So far price has reached up to 102.24. We may use a trend channel on the hourly chart to see if it has turned here. Once this channel is breached I will have confidence in the next downwards target.
The daily chart shows all of the start of cycle wave c downwards.
Minor wave 1 subdivides perfectly as an impulse. Minor wave 2 is now complete as an expanded flat correction which is a 66% correction of minor wave 1.
At 72.53 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days and minor wave 2 lasted 67 days. If minor wave 3 is of about the same duration it may end in another 48 days or thereabouts.
The channel drawn about minor waves 1 and 2 is a base channel. Minor wave 3 downwards should clearly and strongly breach the lower edge of the channel. Along the way down upwards corrections should find resistance about the upper edge of the channel.
Within minor wave 3 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 105.21.
When downwards movement breaches the channel on the hourly chart I would have confidence that minute wave ii is over and minute wave iii is underway. At that stage I would move the invalidation point down to the start of minute wave iii at 102.24.
Within minute wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).
Ratios within minuette wave (c) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.05 longer than 0.382 the length of subminuette wave iii.
Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is just 0.01 longer than 2.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of micro waves 3 or 1.
If minuette wave ii is over then downwards movement should clearly breach the green channel which contains it. Only when this channel is breached will I have confidence in the targets.
Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 102.24.
