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SDOW (3xShort Dow ETF): Bullish Watchlist

Reason: Potential Inverted Head & Shoulder with theoretical target at 33.

In the daily chart below we can see that price has formed a likely IHS, although the right shoulder would look better if price "works" sideways a bit more before breaking out.

The positive divergence and the bullish cross of the MACD (In addition to the histogram above the zero line) are favouring a break out of the sideways pattern developed since the beginning of March.

SDOW Daily Chart
Larger Image

If we zoom in the shorter time frame we can see that Wednesday's Inverted Hammer (Usually a "bottoming" candlestick) has been followed by yesterday's sharp advance. The negative divergence of the RSI (5) should suggest that this is not yet the breakout move, instead it price could consolidate a bit before the kick-off.

In a strong up trend usually the 20 dma should hold, anyway as long as yesterday's lod is not breached the bullish pattern will not be busted.

Therefore the idea is no to chase price higher, instead wait and if there is a pullback, probably in the area of the 20 dma step in with a stop below yesterday's lod.

Since next Tuesday I will be on holiday I will not get involved.

SDOW Daily Chart 2
Larger Image

Yesterday I learned an important lesson that I wont to share:

I decided to anticipate the setup with a tight stop so I bought it at the open but instead of letting it go, without a technical reason, I suddenly sold the position because I was filling sick. So if you don't fill well and you are trading leveraged ETF do it only if you have a sound reason but afterwards push the stop button shut down the computers and go to bed.

 

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