USDCHF fell to a new low of the year in February so market remains in bearish mode as long as 0.9080 swing high is not breached; but the question is for how long. We are looking at an ending diagonal in wave C that suggests a coming bullish reversal sometime this year, most likely in the second part of 2014. On the chart we are tracking wave (5) now, final leg in the pattern that will reach new lows and possibly find a support at 0.8500-0.8600 area.

USDCHF Four Hour

USDCHF has turned bearish in first part of April, clearly in impulsive manner before it found a support around 0.9740. We think that rally from that low is corrective, ideally wave 2 that has reatraced back to 0.8825-0.8844 resistance zone as highlighed in our past updates. Market could continue down from that levels so be aware of a downtrend continuation in the next few days. For now critical resistance remains at 0.8951 as wave two must not retrace for more than 100% of wave one.