• 557 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 557 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 559 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 959 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 964 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 966 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 969 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 969 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 970 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 972 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 972 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 976 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 976 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 977 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 979 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 980 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 983 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 984 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 984 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 986 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Silver Market Update

Originally published April 21st, 2014.

Silver's recent rally was feeble compared to gold's, and the retreat that followed has already erased all of the gains made, and already brought it back close to key support at its June and December lows, as we can see on its 1-year chart below. This much lower high and recent preponderance of downside volume are negatives that portend a severe test of this support and its possible failure soon. However it should be noted here that failure of this support won't necessarily lead to a severe decline, as it may be that silver simply wants to gravitate towards its long-term uptrend line, which we can see on the long-term chart further down the page, which is now not all that far beneath the support.

Silver 1-Year Chart

Unlike gold, silver is still some way above its long-term uptrend line, which should hold the price if gold holds above its similar long-term uptrend line, and it is here that a major reversal may occur. However, if gold should break below its long-term uptrend line and head towards its strong long-term support level at about $1000, then it is likely that silver will crash its long-term uptrend line and drop away steeply, especially given its present frail and vulnerable condition.

Silver 15-Year Chart

We have seen a substantial improvement in silver's COT charts in the weeks following its February - March high, and while this has opened up the possibility of a rally, there is still plenty of room for improvement in these COTs, which means that there is still plenty of downside potential for silver.

Silver COT Chart

Silver COT Chart 2
Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

Public opinion on silver is still in middling ground, which in itself is neither bullish no bearish.

Silver Public Opinion Chart

Finally we will look briefly at the latest general commodities COT chart, which shows an astounding shift in positions over the past several months. This chart has rocketed deep into a bearish extreme reading, which does not bode well for commodities as a group at all - what this implies is that commodities will be shot down in flames along with the broad market before much longer. Here we should note that this indicator can lead, and make extreme readings some time before commodities hit a peak, but nevertheless it warns of a looming serious reversal.

CRB Index COT

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment