"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 5 hours Will Regulatory Rollbacks Make Banks 'Too Big To Fail?'
  • 6 hours Elon Musk’s $2.6 Billion Tesla Challenge
  • 7 hours Tech Giants Could Be First Victims Of U.S. Trade War
  • 8 hours Dow Gains Despite Fed’s Rate Hike
  • 9 hours The Biggest Threat To Chinese Oil Futures
  • 11 hours Spending Bill Could Cause U.S. Debt To Soar To 99% Of GDP
  • 12 hours Precious Metals Slide Ahead Of Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
  • 14 hours China’s Soft Power Grab May Be Bad News For Emerging Economies
  • 1 day The Secretive Wall Street Firm Betting On Bitcoin
  • 1 day ‘Data Is King’: The Oil Industry’s Next Most Valuable Resource
  • 1 day Google Invests $300 Million To Combat Fake News
  • 1 day Zuckerberg Dodges A Bullet As Facebook Loses Billions
  • 1 day Tesla Tumbles As Investors Lose Patience
  • 1 day Are Alt-Coins On The Verge Of A Break Out?
  • 2 days What Should Gold Investors Expect From The New Fed Chair?
  • 2 days Who Will Pay For Trump's $60 Billion China Tariffs?
  • 2 days Vladimir Putin’s Mysterious Fortune
  • 2 days Cryptos Resist Social Media Crackdown
  • 2 days The Death Of Dodd-Frank
  • 2 days Bitcoin Bounces Back Ahead Of G20 Meeting
Economic Pressures Weigh On Banks And Borrowers

Economic Pressures Weigh On Banks And Borrowers

Banks and borrowers are under…

Markets Slide Sideways As Trade War Fears Linger

Markets Slide Sideways As Trade War Fears Linger

Despite technology stocks hitting new…

What Killed Toys ‘R’ Us?

What Killed Toys ‘R’ Us?

In another blow for America’s…

Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

I have been using the Elliott wave principle to analyse up to five markets a day since 2008. I began Elliott Wave Forex (originally ForexInfo.us)…

More Info

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Price has moved lower as expected. A clear breach of the channel on the hourly chart confirms a third wave down should have begun.

Summary: A third wave down has most likely begun. The target for it to end is 1,247 and this may be reached in four more days, or more likely seven more days.

This analysis is published about 05:35 p.m. EST.

Gold Daily Chart
Larger Image

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag - X - second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.

If downwards movement does not reach 1,201.98 or below then intermediate wave (Y) may not be a flat correction and may be a contracting triangle. I will keep this alternate possibility in mind as this next wave down unfolds. If it looks like a triangle may be forming I will again chart that possibility for you.

Overall the structure for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B downwards is an incomplete corrective structure, and at this stage the structure may be either a single zigzag (as labeled here) or a double zigzag (relabel A-B-C to W-X-Y). While this next wave unfolds I will have to consider two structural possibilities: it may be an impulse for a C wave, or it may be a zigzag for a Y wave.

If minor wave B is a single zigzag then within it minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a above 1,392.30. Minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a at 1,200.89.

If minor wave B is a double zigzag, relabeled minute w-x-y, then within it there is no invalidation point for minute wave x. But X waves within double zigzags are usually relatively brief and shallow, as they very rarely make new price extremes beyond the start of the first zigzag in the double.

Gold Hourly Chart
Larger Image

The channel which was drawn about minuette wave (ii) on yesterday's chart is now clearly breached with strong downwards movement. This provides trend channel confirmation that the upwards correction is over and the next wave should have begun.

The next wave should be a strong third wave down.

At 1,247 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). When there is more structure within minuette wave (iii) to analyse then I will add to the target calculation at a second and eventually third wave degree. This target may widen to a small zone or it may change. If it changes I would expect it to be lower.

I have drawn a base channel about minuette waves (i) and (ii). Minuette wave (iii) downwards should be strong enough to break through support at the lower edge of this channel. Once the lower edge of the channel is breached then it should provide resistance.

On the way down, and particularly before the lower edge of this channel is breached, the upper edge should provide resistance to upwards corrections.

So far within minuette wave (iii) there is a lot of overlapping. This suggests a series of first and second waves has begun, which is typical when a third wave extends (which is most common). So far this has a typical look. I would expect downwards momentum to begin to increase over the next 24 hours.

Minuette wave (i) lasted a Fibonacci five days. I would expect minuette wave (iii) to last a minimum of five days, and more likely a total Fibonacci eight days. This means the target at 1,247 may be reached in another seven days trading.

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,309.14.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Sign Up For The Safehaven Newsletter