• 519 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 519 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 521 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 921 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 925 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 927 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 930 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 931 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 932 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 933 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 934 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 938 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 938 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 939 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 941 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 941 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 945 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 945 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 945 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 948 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer is completely independent. We have never and will not ever accept compensation from any company whose stock we recommend. Our goal is to…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Perma Bear

5/28/2014 5:52:46 AM

Good morning Traders,

As we look at the resolution of the market divergence between the QQQ and SPY (Nasdaq and NYSE) playing out, if you're thinking about jumping in, here are some charts for your review.

QQQ versus SPY relative Strength Spread Chart

The circled period on the left is another broadening top pattern, which you can see the resolution is below the low of the pattern. I won't be so bold to predict the same action, and I won't be so bold to say that action has to happen right now. The market makes large moves then tends to hang around - which frustrates traders...

Looking a the internals, this is to be expected. The question is how the market will react. This level of reading suggests at a minimum the market will digest these gains for a bit after a little more upside...

QQQ Advancing Volume minus Declining Volume Chart

Our QQQ Trader service was stopped out before this advance, which is frustrating.

QQQ Daily Stock Barometer Chart

So why not jump to the long side here? We've done a lot of work over the past year to give you expected future returns from relative levels of our indicators. This suggests that buyers of the market here will not be rewarded, in fact, they could see losses of up to 5% over a month's time.

QQQ Trader 1-Month Expected Returns Chart

And finally, I'll leave you with an indicator that measures market efficiency. I always say you never know what you're going to get in the market, but you know when not to chase a trade. And that's where we are here.

NASDAQ Barometer Efficiency Chart

These charts make part of all our research that we apply to our trading of not only the QQQs, but USO (which we have some long CALLS, GLD, which we are LONG PUTS, and Natural Gas, which we are long PUTS (because of their relative action with oil.

When the market gets to this level, we'll start issuing covered call recommendations and if we start to see more extreme sentiment, we'll issue our top PUT trades in our SOS service. We're getting close to that point, but remember the markets like to hang around for a while, AND markets like to suck in as many investors before they go into a correction - so patience is a virtue here.

Regards,

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment