"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 5 hours Why Are Investors Overlooking Gold Stocks?
  • 6 hours The App That Democratized Trading Is Now Worth $5B
  • 7 hours Super-Cycles: Why Gold Is Set For A Breakout
  • 8 hours U.S. Sanctions Russia For Election Meddling And Cyberattacks
  • 9 hours Snap Shares Tank Over ‘Slap Rihanna’ Campaign
  • 10 hours How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
  • 12 hours Amazon’s Japan HQ Raided In Anti-Monopoly Push
  • 14 hours Is Barrick Gold Close To Finding A Bottom?
  • 1 day Morgan Stanley’s Top 10 Short-Term Stock Picks
  • 1 day China: The Land Of The Ultra-Rich
  • 1 day Alibaba Soars On Reports Of China Listing
  • 1 day What Killed Toys ‘R’ Us?
  • 1 day SEC And IRS Take An Aggressive Stance On Cryptocurrencies
  • 1 day Bears And Bulls Face Off In Gold Markets
  • 2 days Bitcoin Is Winning Over The Housing Market
  • 2 days Markets Slide Sideways As Trade War Fears Linger
  • 2 days Why Aren’t Millennials Investing?
  • 2 days Bitcoin And Banking: The Next Mobile Payment Revolution
  • 2 days SEC Cracks Down On Silicon Valley’s “Disruptive Tech”
  • 2 days Wyoming Eliminates All Taxation On Gold And Silver
Can This Bull Market Become The Longest In History?

Can This Bull Market Become The Longest In History?

Positive job growth and confident…

Snap Shares Tank Over ‘Slap Rihanna’ Campaign

Snap Shares Tank Over ‘Slap Rihanna’ Campaign

Snapchat’s share prices tumbled after…

Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

I have been using the Elliott wave principle to analyse up to five markets a day since 2008. I began Elliott Wave Forex (originally ForexInfo.us)…

More Info

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Last analysis expected that upwards movement was over and price should move lower. Price moved higher first, but remains below the invalidation point. Since reaching a high at 104.49 price has turned downwards.

Summary: I expect that upwards movement is over for now. A clear breach of the channel on the hourly chart would provide me with confidence that the middle of a third wave down has started. The target for the next wave down is 92.91 and may be reached in two to three weeks.

US Oil Daily Chart
Larger Image

The daily chart shows all of the start of cycle wave c downwards.

Minor wave 1 subdivides perfectly as an impulse and minor wave 2 as an expanded flat correction, which is a 66% correction of minor wave 1.

At 72.53 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days, and I would expect minor wave 3 to be extended so longer in duration. It may last a total Fibonacci 89 days.

I have slightly adjusted the base channel about minor waves 1 and 2 to a "best fit" channel. I would expect upwards corrections to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel, and the third wave down should have enough momentum to break through support at the lower edge of the channel.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 104.99.

US Oil Hourly Chart
Larger Image

Minuette wave (ii) moved higher. There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c.

There has not been a breach of the orange channel containing minuette wave (ii). This is still required before I would have any confidence that the trend has changed to downwards. While we do not have this confirmation I will allow for the possibility of more upwards movement. Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 104.99.

When this orange channel is breached then I would move the invalidation point down to the start of minuette wave (iii) and calculate a target for minuette wave (iii).


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Sign Up For The Safehaven Newsletter