USD/JPY has thus far failed to move significantly above the 38.2% retracement (102.09) of the decline from April, indicating a weak buying interest. Monitor the support at 101.35 (see also 61.8% retracement of the recent bounce), as a break would call for a new test of the key support at 100.76. Resistances stand at 102.14 and 102.36 (13/05/2014 high).

A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. Monitor the support area provided by the 200 day moving average (around 101.39) and 100.76 (04/02/2014 low). A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

We have raised our stop-loss at 101.25.

Daily Technical Report