• 740 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 740 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 742 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,142 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,147 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,149 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,152 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,152 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,153 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,155 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,155 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,159 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,159 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,160 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,162 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,163 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,166 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,167 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,167 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,169 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Gold

Gold lost $46/oz. last week to close at $1,245.60 and, while it might not feel like it, gold is still up $43.70 for the year. My price forecasting model generates a target of 1,206 for this decline. Seasonally, gold tends to make a bottom of undetermined degree in the period from June to July.

This year, inflation expectations have me wondering if gold might bottom earlier rather than later during the two-month period. In the chart below, inflation expectations (blue) show a large jump-up this spring and can be seen at the right. Inflation expectations are highly correlated to the price of gold and have a tendency to lead gold at bottoms. They've gotten a big lead this time (bigger than most instances) and I have to believe that the only thing holding gold down is waiting for seasonality to be right for a bottom. Another week like last week would get gold to my price target. I find two different Middle Sections pointing to lows on Friday June 13 and Monday June 16.

5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate and Gold Fixing Price Chart
Larger Image

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment