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Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

I have been using the Elliott wave principle to analyse up to five markets a day since 2008. I began Elliott Wave Forex (originally ForexInfo.us)…

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US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Last analysis expected that upwards movement was over and price should move lower. Price moved higher first, but remains below the invalidation point. Since reaching a high at 104.49 price has turned downwards.

Summary: I expect to see an increase in downwards momentum from Oil. The short term target at 88.17 may be met in about three or four weeks.

US Oil Daily Chart
Larger Image

The daily chart shows all of the start of cycle wave c downwards.

Minor wave 1 subdivides perfectly as an impulse and minor wave 2 as an expanded flat correction, which is a 66% correction of minor wave 1.

At 72.53 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days, and I would expect minor wave 3 to be extended so longer in duration. It may last a total Fibonacci 89 days, but at this stage that expectation looks like it may be too soon.

At 84.00 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. Minute wave iii so far looks like it will be extended both in time and price. Minute wave i lasted 10 days and minute wave iii may last a Fibonacci 55 days in total.

At 88.17 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). Minuette wave (i) lasted 11 days and minuette wave (ii) lasted 18 days. If minuette wave (iii) is extended in both time and price it may end in another three to four weeks.

I have redrawn the base channel about minor waves 1 and 2. The third wave down should have enough momentum to break through support at the lower edge of the channel.

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 104.49.

 

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