"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 1 hour The $85B Merger That Could Change The Media Forever
  • 2 hours Why Are Governments Creating Their Own Cryptocurrencies?
  • 3 hours How Debt Cycles Impact Gold
  • 4 hours Investors Up the Ante In $1.5B Uber Loan Deal
  • 6 hours Are Gold Miners Poised For A Breakout?
  • 8 hours Is The "Crypto Winter“ Over?
  • 10 hours China Says It Doesn’t Fear Trade War
  • 1 day Twitter CEO: The World Will Have A Single Currency
  • 1 day Asian Currency Correction Could Signal Looming Crisis
  • 1 day Best Buy Drops Telecom Giant Over National Security Threat
  • 1 day The Pros And Cons Of The Federal Interest Rate Hike
  • 1 day Good News For Gold Bulls Despite Interest Rate Hike
  • 1 day Trump Hits China With $50 Billion In Tariffs
  • 1 day Russian Gold Reserves Hit Record High Amid Rising Tensions With West
  • 1 day Stocks Pull Back Following Interest Rate Hike
  • 2 days Will Regulatory Rollbacks Make Banks 'Too Big To Fail?'
  • 2 days Elon Musk’s $2.6 Billion Tesla Challenge
  • 2 days Tech Giants Could Be First Victims Of U.S. Trade War
  • 2 days Dow Gains Despite Fed’s Rate Hike
  • 2 days The Biggest Threat To Chinese Oil Futures
Economic Pressures Weigh On Banks And Borrowers

Economic Pressures Weigh On Banks And Borrowers

Banks and borrowers are under…

Trump's Trade War Nears Boiling Point

Trump's Trade War Nears Boiling Point

Trump’s trade war appears to…

Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer is completely independent. We have never and will not ever accept compensation from any company whose stock we recommend. Our goal is to…

More Info

Coming Out Of Expirations

6/25/2014 5:58:32 AM

Good morning Traders,

Tuesday saw some program selling coming into the market. The problem is, there was a lot of selling which suggests there are many betting on more selling here. And as you know, when everyone bets in one direction, the market tends to do the alternative.

That doesn't mean we're not working on a top, it's just a process that has to play out. Let's take a look at how our forecast from last year is playing out:

SPY Forecasting Model Chart

As you can see, our model is suggesting a move higher into July. Now a look at our cycles:

2014 10/20/40 Weeks Cycles and Seasonality Chart

The 10/1 20 week cycle low is the next big focus cycle date, given the lack of a 9 month cycle low. It's pretty common to have a low within this period. So the market, cycles and forecast are all pointing towards a move lower playing out over the next 4 months...

Looking at oil very quickly, as our call options performed very nicely - if the stock market sells off, it'll likely take oil with it:

USO/OIL: Put/Call Ratio and Open Interest Chart

This just shows the 1 month future returns tend to be negative when traders bet too heavily on call options...

As for the Qs, this positioning could be very bearish...

QQQ Timing Indicator Chart

And back to the barometer:

Daily Stock Barometer QQQ Trader - primary System Chart

I think conditions are ripe for positioning in covered calls and stock put options over the next month as we work through this overbought market. Expect some trades in our services over the weekend.



Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Sign Up For The Safehaven Newsletter