The good news is:
• The NASDAQ composite (OTC) closed at a multi year high Friday and the rest of the major indices closed at all time highs.
The negatives
The market is overbought.
For the past 6 weeks most of the major indices have been rising at an annualized rate that exceeds 50%.
The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
OTC NH recovered a bit last week, but remains closer to its low of the past 6, months or even 2 years, than its high.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NH has been calculated from NYSE data.
NY NH has been stronger than OTC NH, and hit a 6 month high last week, but is well below its high of the past 2 years.
The positives
The secondaries continued to outperform the blue chips last week. The Russell 2000 closed at an all time high for the first time since early March.
The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator, the line is solid at the neutral 50% level.
NY HL Ratio at 96.4% is at its highest level in over a year.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated from NASDAQ data.
OTC HL Ratio rose to 85.6% on Friday.
There are trading systems that impose a No Sell Filter when variations of this indicator are above 80%.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of July during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle.
The tables below show the change, on a percentage basis, of the OTC and SPX for the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of July during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2013 while SPX data runs from 1953 through 2013. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Average returns for the coming week have been mixed, but weaker during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle than all years combined.
Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of July.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.
| OTC Presidential Year 2 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1966-2 | 0.00% | 0.30% | -0.09% | 0.64% | 0.60% | 1.45% |
| 1970-2 | 0.55% | -0.48% | 1.04% | 1.80% | 1.93% | 4.84% |
| 1974-2 | -3.55% | -0.52% | -1.09% | -0.24% | 2.84% | -2.56% |
| 1978-2 | 0.17% | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.12% | 0.95% | 2.00% |
| 1982-2 | 0.00% | -0.49% | -0.67% | -0.76% | 0.76% | -1.16% |
| 1986-2 | -1.72% | -1.59% | 0.27% | 0.49% | -0.14% | -2.68% |
| 1990-2 | 0.25% | -0.15% | 0.64% | 0.70% | 0.27% | 1.71% |
| Avg | -1.21% | -0.47% | -0.10% | 0.06% | 0.94% | -0.54% |
| 1994-2 | 0.00% | -0.46% | -0.37% | 0.79% | 0.13% | 0.09% |
| 1998-2 | 1.16% | 0.15% | 1.33% | 0.31% | 0.41% | 3.35% |
| 2002-2 | -2.95% | -1.74% | -2.54% | 2.11% | -0.07% | -5.19% |
| 2006-2 | -0.62% | 0.56% | -1.81% | -1.73% | -0.82% | -4.41% |
| 2010-2 | 0.00% | 0.10% | 3.13% | 0.74% | 0.97% | 4.94% |
| Avg | -0.80% | -0.28% | -0.05% | 0.44% | 0.13% | -0.25% |
| OTC summary for Presidential Year 2 1966 - 2010 | ||||||
| Avg | -0.84% | -0.33% | 0.02% | 0.41% | 0.65% | 0.20% |
| Win% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 75% | 75% | 58% |
| OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2013 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.04% | -0.11% | 0.35% | 0.32% | 0.39% | 0.97% |
| Win% | 67% | 51% | 60% | 67% | 75% | 67% |
| SPX Presidential Year 2 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1954-2 | -0.07% | -0.33% | 0.23% | 0.33% | -0.43% | -0.26% |
| 1958-2 | 1.22% | 0.17% | -0.02% | 0.54% | 0.69% | 2.60% |
| 1962-2 | 0.00% | -1.82% | -1.02% | 0.39% | 0.69% | -1.75% |
| 1966-2 | -0.18% | -0.65% | -0.67% | 0.60% | 0.30% | -0.60% |
| 1970-2 | 0.04% | -0.95% | 0.06% | 1.26% | -0.23% | 0.18% |
| Avg | 0.25% | -0.72% | -0.28% | 0.62% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
| 1974-2 | 0.76% | -1.16% | 1.07% | 0.10% | -0.29% | 0.48% |
| 1978-2 | 0.20% | -0.93% | 1.29% | -0.09% | -0.29% | 0.19% |
| 1982-2 | 0.68% | -0.11% | 0.90% | 0.03% | 0.54% | 2.05% |
| 1986-2 | -0.05% | 0.82% | 0.21% | -0.30% | 0.95% | 1.63% |
| 1990-2 | 0.45% | -0.39% | -0.90% | 0.30% | -1.02% | -1.55% |
| Avg | 0.41% | -0.35% | 0.52% | 0.01% | -0.02% | 0.56% |
| 1994-2 | -0.33% | -0.02% | 0.17% | 1.04% | 0.17% | 1.03% |
| 1998-2 | -0.22% | -1.60% | -0.09% | -2.10% | 0.10% | -3.91% |
| 2002-2 | -0.38% | -1.84% | 0.55% | -2.70% | -3.83% | -8.20% |
| 2006-2 | -0.14% | 0.19% | 1.86% | -0.85% | -0.71% | 0.35% |
| 2010-2 | 0.07% | 1.54% | -0.02% | 0.12% | -2.88% | -1.17% |
| Avg | -0.20% | -0.35% | 0.50% | -0.90% | -1.43% | -2.38% |
| SPX summary for Presidential Year 2 1954 - 2010 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.15% | -0.47% | 0.24% | -0.09% | -0.42% | -0.60% |
| Win% | 50% | 27% | 60% | 67% | 47% | 53% |
| SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2013 | ||||||
| Avg | -0.12% | -0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.11% | -0.40% |
| Win% | 47% | 32% | 52% | 58% | 51% | 39% |
Money Supply (M2)
The money supply chart was provided by Gordon Harms. M2 growth has been holding close to its trend line.
Conclusion
The picture for the coming week is anything but clear.
The market is overbought at new highs.
Seasonally the market has been up more often than not but the average returns have been weak.
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday July 11 than they were on Thursday July 3.
Last weeks negative forecast was a miss. This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends. They can sign up at: http://www.stockmarket-ta.com/signup.html. If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.
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Good Luck,
YTD W 8/L 10/T
