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Market Update

10/16/2014 6:15:58 AM

Good morning Traders,

Wednesday's trade saw some level of short term capitulation. I would have preferred an ugly end to the day instead of a reversal. So we still may need some retesting...

On a weekly sentiment view, we still have some work to do.

AAII % Bulls minus % Bears Chart

But we are close to a short term bottom at least. In line with our call for an expiration reversal.

NYSE Yearly New Lows

So far, this relationship between the SPY and QQQ has held true.

QQQ versus SPY Relative Strength

Our trading cycle suggests weakness into November.

35/105 Trading Days Cycle

But if our forecast inverts, we could see yet another leg higher.

2014 SPY Forecast Model

So we've been looking for a low around this expiration, then a bounce. We may play the bounce to the upside, cautiously. So stay tuned.

Regards,

 

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