First of all from the September 2011 high in my opinion we have to potential EW counts:
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Impulsive decline (Red count) in which case this week's lod is either the wave (5) or the wave (I) of en extended wave (5). If the latter is the correct count the current bounce should stall at/below 122.60 while if the former is correct a large wave (B) should aim at the range of the Fibo retracements (139-157).
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Corrective decline (Blue count = Double Zig Zag). If this is the case the current bounce is the second wave (B) of the DZZ, which should not breach the 122.60 area.
The scenario of a large rebound with a potential target at the Fibo retracement of the decline off the September 2011 high will be dependent on the progress correlation with the USD (Weak USD = Strong Gold).
In the weekly time frame we can observe that the thrust following the Triangle can be counted as impulsive therefore this down leg is most likely in place. Hence the odds favor a larger rebound.
We can use the Fibo retracement # as the potential targets for the two scenarios discussed above. Usually a wave (II) or (B) should fade below the 0.618 retracement.
If the 0.618 retracement were reclaimed then the scenario of a large wave (B) countertrend rebound should become the frontrunner scenario.
In the daily chart below we can see Friday's impressive bullish action with a huge engulfing candlestick (hod at the 20 dma) and a bullish MACD signal cross.
Next resistance is at the 50 dma and the 0.618 R of the last down leg (116.37-116.59).
The support zone is located in the range 113.15-112.74.
Lastly in the 30 min chart I have labelled the price action from the November 5 lod as potential Double Zig Zag with two alternatives ideas.
If next Monday we have a pullback I will be seeking an entry point in the range 113.16-112.68.
