• 511 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 511 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 513 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 913 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 918 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 920 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 923 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 923 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 924 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 926 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 926 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 930 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 930 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 931 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 933 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 934 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 937 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 938 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 938 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 940 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Odds Of Stock Rally Pushing Higher

Euro

ECB Ready To Act

In a familiar theme of words and little in the way of action, the head of the European Central Bank was jawboning again Monday. From The Wall Street Journal:

"The European Central Bank is willing to take additional easing steps including purchases of government bonds if needed to keep inflation from staying too low for too long, ECB President Mario Draghi said Monday. Mr. Draghi's remarks, in testimony to the European Parliament, underscored the central bank's commitment to expand its balance sheet--the value of assets it holds--and if necessary widen its stimulus efforts to ensure that inflation rises back to the ECB's target of just below 2%."

The theme of ongoing "easy money" ties in nicely with what history says about the current stock rally in the United States.


Rare And Unprecedented

Since numerous rare occurrences, including the massive V-type rally in stocks, could skew the current landscape from a historical perspective, it is important we remain open to all outcomes (bullish, bearish, and sideways). However, it is also prudent to ask:

Can we learn anything from similar rallies in the last 10 years?


Weather Analogy

Just as meteorological conditions shift slowly over time between the middle of summer and the dead of winter, markets experience observable changes as a bottom is formed after a correction and during the subsequent rally. The market was weak (temperature of roughly 13 degrees) just prior to the October 15 low. Since then, conditions have improved relative to the market's profile (temperature of roughly 83 on November 7, 2014). How has the market performed in the past after moving from a profile of 13 to 83? That question is explored in this week's video.

The table below is described in the video above, along with charts showing numerous examples from recent history.

S&P 500 Table


Investment Implications - The Weight Of The Evidence

Regular readers know our approach frowns upon forecasting and instead allocates based on the facts we have in hand. Therefore, the exercise above is simply about exploring the range of possibilities based on recent history. The market may go sideways or it may go down, but history tells us upside is also a realistic outcome in the months ahead. Based on the evidence we have in hand, our market model is calling for a heavy weight to equities (SPY), complemented by a modest stake in bonds (TLT). If the bulls can carry the market over the 2043 to 2046 level this week, the evidence may call for another incremental add to our stock ETF holdings.

 


ECB image Adam Baker Flickr

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment