• 1,019 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 1,020 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 1,021 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,421 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,426 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,428 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,431 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,431 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,432 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,434 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,434 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,438 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,438 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,439 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,441 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,442 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,445 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,446 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,446 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,448 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Instability, Here We Come

Last week saw the global financial system tip from delusion -- where it had happily drifted for several years -- into chaos. Consider the following more-or-less randomly chosen data points:

French unemployment hits record high

Italian unemployment hits record high

Oil's price falls by $10.36/bbl, or 13.5%, in a single day, to its lowest price since 2010.

Copper falls by 6% to $2.86/lb, 25% below its 2013 high.

European bond yields fall to record lows. Even Italy, with government debt exceeding 130% of GDP, can now borrow for around 2%. Japan, meanwhile, issues bonds with negative interest rates.

European inflation approaches zero, with several member states apparently already in deflation.

Emerging markets see the opposite trend, as a soaring dollar causes their currencies to fall and inflation to spike. The Russian ruble falls by 7.3% to a record low, while the currencies of Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Chile drop by at least 1.9%. See Brazil's Rousseff vows immense effort to slow inflation.

Chinese malinvestment, a topic of conversation ever since those ghost city pictures started circulating, is pegged at $6.8 trillion, or about 70% of China's entire economy.

As Prudent Bear's Doug Noland put it his November 28 Credit Bubble Bulletin, "Collapse of the 'global reflation trade' runs unabated. Where might contagion strike next?"

The answer is in one final set of stats: Last week the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Transports hit record highs, while the Nasdaq 100 index of tech stocks rose to its highest level since March 2000, just before its epic crash.

If everything but equities is being sucked into a 2008-style deflationary vortex, how much longer can US stocks hold out? Probably not long.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment