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DAX: Follow Up of The Long-Term EWP

The following is an alternative to the Triangle wave (X) within a Double Zig Zag, which I discussed in my last up date on January 9 (unfortunately I don't know why there are no charts in the post).

If this count is correct, from the June 2012 low price has to unfold a Zig Zag, with the wave (A) established on July 2014. The question is if the correction ended on October completed the wave (B) hence the wave (Y) is already underway.

I am doubtful.

DAX Monthly Triangle Chart
Larger Image

In the following weekly chart I put forward two potential scenarios:

  1. The assumed wave (Y) is underway with a potential target in the range 10906-12483, (blue label)

  2. Price will unfold a Flat or a Triangle in which case the October low will be retested, (Red label)

DAX Weekly Triangle Chart
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If from the October low price were unfolding an impulsive advance the next pullback wave (2) should bottom in the range of the 200 d = 9524 - 50 d ma = 9306.

If the 50 dma were breached then the scenario of a Flat or Triangle would become the frontrunner.

Notice that the 50 dma cross below the 200 dma (On September) remains in force giving an edge that this advance could still belong to a larger corrective pattern.

DAX Daily Triangle Chart
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Moreover if we zoom in the daily time frame we can make the case that so far the advance off the October lows has unfolded a 3-wave up leg, hence in the next pullback the overlap at 9466 will be a crucial price level.

Regarding the short-term time frame we have to watch if the black trend line is not breached in which case maybe, as I have suggested for SPX, price could be forming an Ending Diagonal.

DAX Daily Chart
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Daily momentum is flashing warnings with a negative divergence of the RSI (14) and a bearish cross of the Stochastic.

The MACD has not confirmed yet a potential reversal.

DAX Daily Momentum Chart
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Lastly in the 60 min time frame in my opinion odds favor a corrective count (Potential Zig Zag).

Next week we shall see if the Ending Diagonal scenario pans out.

DAX 60-Minute Chart
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