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What’s Missing in Investment Forecasts?

Year after year for 15 years now, my Newsletter has given investors specific suggestions as to how to construct a model portfolio which includes a diversified mix of stocks, ETFs, bonds, and cash. Sometimes, it might have appeared that the recommendations were like many other investment forecasts. That is, about half the time they might be right and half the time wrong and perhaps, therefore, of no particular value.

Investment forecasts always appear, especially at the beginning of a new year. But how can you know how successful the forecaster's prior predictions were? If you don't have access to that information, it is indeed reasonable to assume that any new predictions have only close to a 50% chance of being right.

But year by year, by constantly tracking how my Model Portfolios have performed and posting the results on my site, I have proven that these recommendations, if they were guesswork or only 50% likely to be helpful, must have been awfully lucky. Long-time readers, or anyone who wants to review how our Portfolios have done, will realize that our recommendations have been far more successful than would be expected by mere chance.

While readers will, with all assurity, continue as always to come and go from my site, we have enough loyal readers who have profited from our recommendations that we continue to find it worthwhile to publish our work. And once again, as the data we have presented there this month shows, people who stuck with our recommendations, which are meant to be for the long term, have come out ahead. I know of no other source that provides this kind of valuable information to readers. Do you?

We wish all our readers success in 2015 but, more importantly, in the many years ahead.


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