• 317 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 317 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 319 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 719 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 723 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 725 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 728 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 729 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 730 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 731 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 732 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 735 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 736 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 737 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 739 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 739 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 742 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 743 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 743 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 745 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

What’s Missing in Investment Forecasts?

Year after year for 15 years now, my Newsletter has given investors specific suggestions as to how to construct a model portfolio which includes a diversified mix of stocks, ETFs, bonds, and cash. Sometimes, it might have appeared that the recommendations were like many other investment forecasts. That is, about half the time they might be right and half the time wrong and perhaps, therefore, of no particular value.

Investment forecasts always appear, especially at the beginning of a new year. But how can you know how successful the forecaster's prior predictions were? If you don't have access to that information, it is indeed reasonable to assume that any new predictions have only close to a 50% chance of being right.

But year by year, by constantly tracking how my Model Portfolios have performed and posting the results on my site, I have proven that these recommendations, if they were guesswork or only 50% likely to be helpful, must have been awfully lucky. Long-time readers, or anyone who wants to review how our Portfolios have done, will realize that our recommendations have been far more successful than would be expected by mere chance.

While readers will, with all assurity, continue as always to come and go from my site, we have enough loyal readers who have profited from our recommendations that we continue to find it worthwhile to publish our work. And once again, as the data we have presented there this month shows, people who stuck with our recommendations, which are meant to be for the long term, have come out ahead. I know of no other source that provides this kind of valuable information to readers. Do you?

We wish all our readers success in 2015 but, more importantly, in the many years ahead.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment