• 8 hours Buffett, Dimon Voice Support For Stock Buybacks
  • 14 hours Newmont Goldcorp Now World's Top Miner After Sealing The Deal
  • 1 day Canopy Growth Eyes U.S. Pot Producer In $3.4B Takeover Deal
  • 1 day U.S. Slaps New Sanctions On Cuba To End ‘Glamorization Of Communism’
  • 2 days The Unstoppable Electric Bus Revolution
  • 2 days Pinterest, Zoom Launch Much Anticipated IPOs
  • 2 days Marijuana’s Bizarre Bottleneck Isn’t What You’d Expect
  • 2 days Climbing Stocks Weigh On Gold, But A Turnaround May Be Near
  • 3 days China's Economic Growth Exceeds Analyst Expectations
  • 3 days Gold Prices Fall On Record Global Production Estimates
  • 3 days Can Meditation Make A Business More Profitable?
  • 3 days America’s Biggest And Most Profitable Actually Got Tax Rebates
  • 4 days Central Bank Gold-Buying Is Chipping Away At The Dollar
  • 4 days The Three Assets That Outperformed The S&P Over 20 Years
  • 4 days Inside China’s Renewed War To Purge the Internet
  • 4 days Trump Blames Fed For 10,000-Point Stock Market Loss
  • 5 days Musk Draws SEC Attention With Another Controversial Tweet
  • 5 days The Overlooked Factor Contributing To Inflation
  • 5 days Does Capitalism Need An Upgrade?
  • 6 days Next Major Stock Market Selloff Could Spark A Bull Run For Gold
Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

The counterfeit market has breached…

Tesla Struggles To Compete In European Market

Tesla Struggles To Compete In European Market

Tesla continues to catch the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The State of the Trend

From a seasonal point of view, the year is divided into 15 weeks with strong bullish bias, seven weeks with strong bearish bias, and the rest with a weak or mixed bias.

The first week with strong negative bias is behind us and all the major averages are in the red for the year:

S&P500 Daily Chart
Larger Image

Seasonality suggests, however, that several consecutive weeks with strong bullish bias are to follow and are likely to set the tone for the next couple of months. For the bullish case, it is critical that the indices manage to break above the January highs during that period. An inability to do so, coupled with the absence of strong bullish seasonal trends during the second half of February and the beginning of March, will suggest that the bear trend is here to stay for several months.

An easy way to monitor the trend is to follow the interaction between price and weekly trend bars. Designed specifically to eliminate noise from random price moves, trend bars provide a novel visual and technical approach to defining trend:

Price and Weekly Trend Bars
Chart courtesy of OT Seasonal

Combining trend bars with seasonality offers a simple but effective way to avoid losses and let winners run.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment