• 2 days Investors Are Patient With Unprofitable Giants
  • 4 days Wells Fargo Back In The Scandal Spotlight Once Again
  • 6 days 5 Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On This Year
  • 8 days As Auto Giants Flail, Look To Chip Stocks For Gains
  • 8 days Central America Is Ready For The Bitcoin Hustle
  • 10 days China’s Video Game Restrictions Unlikely To Slow Down Booming Industry
  • 11 days Top Performing Stocks As Inflation Fears Grow
  • 12 days US Airline Stocks Take A Beating On New EU Restrictions
  • 13 days This IPO Could Open Sustainable Fashion Floodgates
  • 14 days Crypto Crime Nets Another $2B Fraudster
  • 16 days This Week’s Hottest Meme Stocks
  • 18 days Why World Markets Should Be Watching Germany Closely
  • 20 days Could ‘Cultured’ Meat Rival The Plant-Based Megatrend?
  • 22 days ‘Easy Money’: Crypto Is Still Attracting Newbie Investors
  • 24 days Foreign Syndicates May Have Stolen Up To $400B In COVID Benefits
  • 25 days Gold Jumps Above $1800 Ahead Of Jackson Hole Summit
  • 25 days International Banks Blacklist Afghanistan Following Taliban Takeover
  • 27 days China’s Tycoons Are Getting A Serious Reality Check
  • 28 days U.S. Cannabis Space Heats Up With Telling Tilray Acquisition
  • 29 days Consumer Price Index Hits 13-Year-High
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Lindsay: How Low Will It Go?

If the Dec high was point H of Linds ay's long cycle (approximately 20 years) as suspected then we can examine past declines from H to I to get an idea as to how low this decline will go. Unfortunately, with only four previous long cycles to examine (since 1921) the sample size is less than "significant".

A Simplication of all the long cycles since 1798

The average decline from H to I is 23%. The smallest decline was 10% (1990) and the largest was 45% (1973-74).

If the Dow falls 10% from the Dec high point I will occur near 16,249. If the Dow falls 23%, point I will occur near 13,902.

Expanding our search to include the declines from B to C, F to G, and J to K (D-E and L-M are excluded as they are the terminal declines of multiple cycles and expected to be abnormally large) the average decline is 21% and the smallest decline was 6%. If the Dow falls 6% from the Dec high point I will occur near 16,971.

Dow Chart

Reminder: this analysis is only helpful if the Oct low was not point I. The Dow fell 6.7% during Sept-Oct, 2014.


Try a 'sneak-peek' at Seattle Technical Advisors.com


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment