Gold Trading Alert originally published on March 3rd, 2015 7:02 AM
Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are keeping the stop-loss levels at their current levels, which means that we are effectively keeping some gains locked and at the same time we're allowing the profits to increase.
Gold stocks erased the gains of the previous days during yesterday's session alone and gold declined visibly as well. Is their and gold's rally over?
It's quite likely, but the more important thing is that even if they rally some more here, they are not likely to rally much more and lower prices are likely to be seen in the coming weeks anyway.
Let's start today's analysis with the gold market (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Our previous comments on gold from the long-term perspective remain up-to-date:
Gold ended the week below the declining red dashed resistance line and the trend remains down - there were no changes based on Thursday's and Friday's small moves higher.
Keeping this in mind, let's take a look at the short-term gold chart.
In yesterday's alert we commented on the above chart in the following way:
Please note that we are not ruling out a more visible corrective upswing at this point. The retracement levels based on this month's decline are marked in green. The first retracement is at about $1,235, so even if gold moves to this level, it will not change anything. In fact, even gold moving to $1,262 would still be viewed as an upward correction at this time (we don't think that it will move as high, though).
Regardless of the possible upward correction (based on today's pre-market action, it's already taking place), it seems that keeping the short position intact is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. The reason is that we are after major sell signals and breakdowns and a possible move back above the previously broken levels would need to be confirmed before having bullish implications. The correction could end quickly and be followed by a big slide (say $1+ decline in silver) that one would not be able to take advantage of by being out of the market. The breakdowns and medium-term sell signals justify preparing for the above while enduring small upswings.
The above remains up-to-date. Please note that gold indeed moved higher, but didn't invalidate anything - it remains below both resistance lines and the outlook remains bearish.
We saw a repeat of Thursday's action on Friday as gold once again moved higher, didn't rise above the upper of the rising resistance lines, and closed very close to the lower one. The volume was also similar - and rather low - on both days. The implications are also similar - and bearish. The current small move higher seems to be nothing more than a correction after a quite visible decline that we saw in February.
Gold declined once again after reaching the upper of the resistance lines. The volume was higher than during the previous days' upswings, so the price-volume implications are bearish.
If we consider the gold to USD Index ratio, we have just seen a breakdown below the 2014 lows and the ratio seems to be on its way to its target level. The implications are bearish.
Meanwhile, all that we wrote regarding the above silver chart previously remains up-to-date:
Meanwhile, the situation in the silver market didn't change at all yesterday. Silver is after an important breakdown and it's likely to decline in the following days or weeks. Please note that the fact that silver didn't decline yet is not a sign of strength. It's the natural way of silver to react - it very often either moves very sharply or stays in the same place for an extended time. Based on the recent breakdown, it seems that the next move will be to the downside.
Silver remains below the rising short-term resistance line and the declining long-term resistance line. Consequently, the outlook remains bearish.
Meanwhile, we wrote the following about the HUI Index:
(...) it seems that this decline is not over and that miners have further to fall. Gold is moving higher in today's pre-market trading, so the odds are that HUI will move back above its 2013 low. This will not have profoundly bullish implications, though. The key declining resistance line is currently at about 200, so the odds are that even if gold stocks move higher, they will not move above this level.
The above remains up-to-date. We saw some strength and we could even see some more, but it would not invalidate the bearish outlook unless we see a confirmed breakout above the declining resistance line (which seems unlikely).
There's one more chart that we would like to share with you today. It features the gold stocks' performance relative to other stocks.
The above little-followed ratio has bearish implications for the precious metals market. As long as gold stocks are likely to underperform other stocks, gold will be likely to decline. The former is the case right now as the gold stocks to the general stock market ratio remains in a major downtrend.
Overall, we can summarize the situation in the precious metals market in the same way as we did previously:
Summing up, while we are already seeing some kind of corrective upswing, it doesn't seem to be justified from the risk/reward perspective to adjust the current profitable positions. The profits may get smaller temporarily, but the odds are that they will become even greater as the medium-term trends remain down and the medium-term sell signals remain in place.
To summarize:
Trading capital (our opinion): Short positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks with the following stop-loss orders and initial (!) target prices:
Gold: initial target level: $1,180; stop-loss: $1,254, initial target level for the DGLD ETN: $75.23; stop loss for the DGLD ETN $63.16
Silver: initial target level: $15.70; stop-loss: $17.63, initial target level for the DSLV ETN: $66.25; stop loss for DSLV ETN $45.40
Mining stocks (price levels for the GDX ETN): initial target level: $18.40; stop-loss: $22.17, initial target level for the DUST ETN: $18.99; stop loss for the DUST ETN $11.32
In case one wants to bet on lower junior mining stocks' prices, here are the stop-loss details and initial target prices:
GDXJ: initial target level: $23.37; stop-loss: $28.37
JDST: initial target level: $12.30; stop-loss: $7.00
Long-term capital (our opinion): No positions
Insurance capital (our opinion): Full position
You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website.
Thank you.
