This week could mark a turning point for markets. A top in stocks, and a low in gold and oil?
After a couple of less than stellar results, I've seen few reports of Hindenburg Omens. This short note is to update the outstanding Omens, a new Omen over the past three trading days, and to suggest that events of the next few days may add weight to the Omen signals.
If you are unfamiliar with the Hindenburg Omen, please read Bob McHugh's September essay: http://www.safehaven.com/article/35345/we-got-an-official-confirmed-hindenburg-omen-on-september-19th-2014
This is a busy week. A FED announcement, quadruple witching on Friday, and some solar events later in the week.
- We are still under the shadow of the December and January Omens -- the effect can last 4-months,
- A new signal was generated this past Friday, Monday and Tuesday,
- There have been 38 instances of a Hindenburg Omen since 1987. The grouping of 4 since September is unique,
- The FED announcement combined with quadruple witching can cause volatility,
- Friday's Super Moon (Perigee Moon) is occurring with the Vernal equinox, and a solar eclipse. These solar events can have an effect when markets are at a high stress level. These events may may have the opposite effect on gold and oil, and sparks an end to their slides,
- The S&P500 sits just above the 50dma and is only 3.5% above the 200dma
Don't forget where we are in the expanding triangle formation since 2000. My August 2011 missive was clearly premature, but the pattern remains despite an overthrow.