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The State of the Trend

For the last two weeks the SP500 has followed the quadruple witching pattern (as outlined here) very closely. So it's time now to take a look at what has happened before in post-expiration week:

S&P500 Daily Chart
Larger Image

The result was mixed, but mostly sideways/down.

A period of mixed, choppy action can be expected now as well since weekly market breadth is neutral, while daily is getting overbought. For the time being, the trend is up, and SPY Trend Bars™ point to 208-209 as the support zone above which price needs to stay to avoid a trend reversal:

SPY Trend Bars Chart
Chart courtesy of OT Seasonal

Gold and its ETF have found support at the Nov '14 low. At a minimum, a sustainable break above 115 and 120 for GLD is needed to confirm that a double bottom is in place:

SPDR Gold Trust Shares Weekly Chart
Larger Image


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