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April Low in Equities

Although my Hybrid Lindsay forecasts always assume a small time window surrounds any single-date point forecast, the forecast for a high on April 15 (see last week's commentary) was spot-on. The work of George Lindsay deals with time (not price) and tells us that the pullback following last week's high should be over quickly.

There exists a forecast from the basic cycle (5/2/11) for a low near Apr 24. Unfortunately, there appears to be no confirming forecast from the multiple cycle (10/11/07). An inflection point in the Dow without confirmation from both cycles is not without precedent but it doesn't allow for a high level of confidence in the forecast. Fortunately, we have other tools...

Counting a 222-day interval from the low on Sept 12 targets a turn during the period Apr 21-25.

A high-high-low interval of 53 days from Jan 8 to Mar 2 targets a low on Apr 24.

A short-term cycle low is due Apr 22.

A six-month cycle low is due the same week as the above dates.


Conclusion

Expect the Dow to decline into the latter half of this week: Apr 22-24.

DOW Chart
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