The best way we can describe the Dow Jones Transportation Index is that it is in a short term up trend, but in the lower half of a six month trading range.

The Transportation Index has been in a trading range since the end of last October (see the boxed in area). The Index is not very strongat this time, so it is in a higher-risk condition.

At the same time, it has been technically down trending sinceFebruary 27 ... making lower highs and lower lows which is a negative.

So, this will either turn out to have been consolidation for continued up movement, or it will continue its down trending and go lower. (Remember ... the longer a trading range in time, the larger the move when a breakout occurs.)