The good news is:
• The market is oversold and due for a bounce.
The negatives
For the past month the secondaries have been underperforming the blue chips, new highs have been practically non existent and new lows have reached threatening levels.
The chart below covers the past month showing the broad based indices on Log scales to illustrate their relative performance. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of the week.
The S&P 500 (SPX), in red and NASDAQ composite (OTC), in blue have been the best performers followed by the S&P Mid cap (MID), in green and the small cap Russell 2000 (R2K), in magenta is at the bottom. The small caps usually lead both up and down.
The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH), in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
NY NH has been falling since its high in late January.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it covers the past 2 years showing new highs have been diminishing for a long time.
The next chart is similar to the first one except is shows the OTC in blue and OTC NH, in green, has been calculated from NASDAQ data.
New highs disappeared last week.
The next chart is similar to the one above except is covers the past 2 years.
OTC NH has been deteriorating for a long time.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by (new highs + new lows), OTC HL Ratio, in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator, the line is solid at the neutral 50% level for the indicator.
New lows exceeded new highs on the NASDAQ both Thursday and Friday driving OTC HL Ratio below the neutral line.
The positives
Positives are coming up a bit short, but, on the NYSE new lows have not exceeded new highs for over a month.
The next chart is similar to the one above except is shows the SPX in red and NY HL Ratio, in blue, has been calculated from NYSE data.
NY HL Ratio finished the week at a positive 59%.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of May during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle.
The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of May during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2014 while SPX data runs from 1953 through 2014. There are summaries for both the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Average returns for the coming week have been mixed.
Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of May.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.
| OTC Presidential Year 3 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1963-3 | -0.45% | -0.51% | 0.09% | 0.09% | -0.06% | -0.84% |
| 1967-3 | 1.17% | -0.65% | -1.31% | -0.64% | 0.53% | -0.89% |
| 1971-3 | -0.46% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.07% |
| 1975-3 | 1.11% | -0.41% | 1.24% | 0.38% | 0.85% | 3.17% |
| 1979-3 | -2.33% | -0.77% | 0.57% | -0.48% | -0.02% | -3.03% |
| 1983-3 | 0.33% | 0.56% | -0.48% | -0.24% | 0.59% | 0.76% |
| 1987-3 | 0.00% | 0.95% | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 1.13% |
| 1991-3 | -0.13% | 0.01% | 0.20% | 1.08% | -0.88% | 0.28% |
| Avg | -0.20% | 0.07% | 0.30% | 0.16% | 0.14% | 0.46% |
| 1995-3 | 0.68% | -0.13% | -0.06% | 0.73% | 0.60% | 1.82% |
| 1999-3 | 0.91% | 1.60% | 1.55% | -0.94% | -2.10% | 1.02% |
| 2003-3 | 0.08% | 1.31% | -1.11% | -1.13% | 2.04% | 1.18% |
| 2007-3 | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.18% | -1.65% | 1.12% | -0.37% |
| 2011-3 | 0.55% | 1.01% | -0.93% | 0.63% | -1.21% | 0.05% |
| Avg | 0.44% | 0.76% | -0.08% | -0.47% | 0.09% | 0.74% |
| OTC summary for Presidential Year 3 1963 - 2011 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.11% | 0.24% | 0.00% | -0.15% | 0.14% | 0.34% |
| Win% | 62% | 62% | 54% | 54% | 62% | 69% |
| OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2014 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.06% | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.09% | 0.06% | -0.10% |
| Win% | 56% | 50% | 52% | 56% | 60% | 54% |
| SPX Presidential Year 3 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1955-3 | 0.11% | -0.21% | -1.14% | -0.59% | 0.65% | -1.18% |
| 1959-3 | 0.00% | 0.17% | -0.24% | -1.27% | 0.77% | -0.56% |
| 1963-3 | -0.71% | -0.13% | 0.82% | 0.49% | 0.24% | 0.70% |
| 1967-3 | 0.15% | -1.04% | -0.27% | 0.43% | -0.29% | -1.01% |
| 1971-3 | -0.50% | 0.25% | 0.27% | -0.20% | -0.47% | -0.64% |
| Avg | -0.24% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.23% | 0.18% | -0.54% |
| 1975-3 | 0.96% | -1.60% | 0.50% | 0.54% | 1.08% | 1.48% |
| 1979-3 | -1.66% | 0.15% | 0.29% | -0.95% | 0.00% | -2.16% |
| 1983-3 | -0.17% | 0.06% | -0.57% | -0.43% | 0.40% | -0.72% |
| 1987-3 | 0.46% | 2.07% | 0.04% | -0.26% | -0.45% | 1.86% |
| 1991-3 | -0.19% | -0.73% | 0.32% | 1.25% | -1.96% | -1.31% |
| Avg | -0.12% | -0.01% | 0.12% | 0.03% | -0.23% | -0.17% |
| 1995-3 | 0.74% | -0.08% | 0.15% | 0.00% | 0.23% | 1.04% |
| 1999-3 | -0.35% | 1.14% | 0.62% | 0.26% | -2.18% | -0.50% |
| 2003-3 | -0.38% | 0.85% | -0.51% | -1.01% | 1.43% | 0.38% |
| 2007-3 | 0.26% | -0.12% | 0.32% | -1.40% | 0.96% | 0.03% |
| 2011-3 | 0.47% | 0.81% | -1.11% | 0.49% | -0.81% | -0.15% |
| Avg | 0.15% | 0.52% | -0.11% | -0.33% | -0.07% | 0.16% |
| SPX summary for Presidential Year 3 1955 - 2011 | ||||||
| Avg | -0.06% | 0.11% | -0.03% | -0.18% | -0.03% | -0.18% |
| Win% | 50% | 53% | 60% | 47% | 57% | 40% |
| SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2014 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.00% | -0.14% | 0.03% | -0.11% |
| Win% | 44% | 47% | 53% | 47% | 54% | 42% |
Money supply (M2)
The money supply chart was provided by Gordon Harms. Money supply growth continued to tumble.
Conclusion
The first 6 months of the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle are the strongest of the entire 4 year cycle and they have been seriously sub par this year. There are 2 months left of this seasonally strong period so we should see some additional new highs, at least in the blue chips in the next 2 months.
I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday May 8 than they were on Friday May 1.
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Good Luck,
YTD W 8 / L 6 / T 3
