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The State of the Trend

Things haven't changed much since our last update at the beginning of April. The long-term trend remains up, although the SP500 hasn't been able to break out of the box it has been confined to since February '15.

There's a good chance that the SPX will make another run at new highs this week, since it has been making higher lows all throughout March and April, and the current upswing is starting from oversold levels, just as it happened on all previous occasions:

S&P500 Index Chart
Charts courtesy of OT Signals

Swing degree angles provide accurate support/resistance levels and price and time targets. Despite all the handwringing about QE, HFT, CB intervention and what not, when examined through the decades (going all the way back to the end of the 19th century), these same angles reveal that the markets have a tendency to move consistently along similar paths and to follow similar patterns.

Measured by the same historical standards, this bull run is getting long in the tooth and will also run its course. But first, several key short-term technical levels would have to be broken. Until that happens, no matter how much the bears cry wolf at every downturn, the bulls will keep possession of the ball.


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